Of the total number of 223 seats (of the 225 member Karnataka assembly, one member is nominated, while polling to one seat was countermanded following a candidates death), Congress would garner between 80 to 90 seats, while the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) will garner between 40 to 45 seats. The current ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will get between 65 to 70 seats. The Karnataka Janata Pakhsa (KJP) floated by former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa will get between 10-12 seats. The Badavara Shramikara Raithara Congress (BSRC) will get about 4 to 7 seats with Independents accounting for 15 seats.
While political pundits are predicting that Congress will win a majority with over 110 seats, though the required majority is 113 seats, it appears that the distribution of tickets and the tussle around it will see Congress fall-short of 10-15 seats. But whether it rules out whether Congress will form the government in Karnataka, it will depend on the alliance they would forge post the declaration of the results, especially if Congress ties-up with KJP.
But if JDS and BJP decide to combine to form the government along with some Independent candidates, then Congress might have to sit in the Opposition.
GC – A2A survey and analysis indicate that while Congress had an opportunity to dent BJP in Karnataka, it might have fallen short of the effort due to its own internal politics and favoritism that so often clouds the decision to giving tickets to winnable and deserving candidates rather than to candidates for a price.
While BJP might have a chance to form the government along with JDS, it has lost considerable hold on the state due to large-scale corruption that had been brought to light during their governance, especially the illegal mining, which gave rise to the tussle between Yeddyurappa and Bellary Reddy brothers with the BJP party, with former floating his own political party.