Iran, despite its aggressive rhetoric and expansive military apparatus, is unlikely to engage in an all-out war with Israel, even if Israel were to launch a full-scale offensive against Hezbollah and Hamas. Historically, Iran has relied on proxy groups and covert operations rather than direct military engagements. This strategy, which echoes Pakistan’s use of non-state actors and terrorist organizations to achieve strategic goals, allows Iran to exert influence and achieve geopolitical objectives without exposing itself to the devastating consequences of direct conflict.
Iran’s preference for proxy warfare can be traced back to the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), where the country suffered immense casualties and economic loss. Learning from this experience, the Iranian regime shifted towards a strategy of indirect confrontation. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen serve as Iran’s instruments of influence and destabilization across the Middle East. By supporting these groups with funding, training, and weapons, Iran can strike at its adversaries, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia, while maintaining plausible deniability.
A direct military engagement with Israel would not only be catastrophic for Iran but also politically unsustainable. Iran’s economy is already under severe strain due to international sanctions and domestic mismanagement. A full-scale war would lead to further economic devastation, potentially destabilizing the regime. Moreover, the Iranian leadership is aware that any direct attack on Israel would trigger a swift and overwhelming response, not only from Israel but likely from its allies, including the United States. This is a risk the Iranian regime, with its focus on survival and regional dominance, is unlikely to take.
For years, Hamas and Hezbollah have been at the forefront of Iran’s proxy war against Israel. However, the reality is that these organizations are ultimately expendable assets for Tehran. While their leaders have benefitted from Iranian support, rank-and-file members and the civilian populations they claim to defend have suffered the most. Gaza, under Hamas’ control, is impoverished and blockaded, while southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah holds sway, remains a tinderbox of potential conflict. Despite this, these groups continue to serve Iran’s interests, often at the cost of their own people’s welfare.
Recently, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have emerged as another proxy through which Iran can threaten its adversaries. With missile capabilities that can reach Israel, the Houthis represent a new front in Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. This escalation is not just a threat to Israel but also to the broader stability of the Middle East. By opening multiple fronts, Iran aims to stretch Israel’s military and strategic resources, while keeping its own forces largely out of direct confrontation.
The leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, and now the Houthis, must recognize that their alignment with Iran is a double-edged sword. While it may offer them resources and legitimacy, it also turns their territories into battlegrounds and their people into pawns in a much larger game.
While Iran’s strategy has been effective in some ways, it has come at a tremendous cost to its proxies. Hezbollah and Hamas have paid in blood for their alignment with Iranian interests. Both groups have suffered massive losses, not only in terms of fighters but also in the infrastructure and civilian lives lost during conflicts with Israel. Yet, the leadership of these organizations continues to profit from their unholy alliance with Iran, receiving financial support and political backing while their followers bear the brunt of the conflict.
It is high time for the rank and file of Hezbollah, Hamas and now the Houthis to recognize the reality of their situation. Their leaders are ensconced in safe havens, enjoying the patronage of Iran, while they send young men to die in futile battles. The cycle of violence has only served to impoverish and destabilize the Palestinian and Lebanese people and even the people of Yemen, with no tangible benefits for their cause.
The recent normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states should be a wake-up call. The broader Arab world is moving away from perpetual conflict and seeking stability and prosperity. Yet, by continuing their allegiance to Iran, these groups are choosing a path that guarantees only more bloodshed and suffering.
Iran’s strategy of proxy warfare and covert terrorism is a calculated choice, borne out of necessity rather than bravery. Tehran understands that an all-out war with Israel would be suicidal, a reality that both Hamas and Hezbollah should consider as they continue to serve as pawns in Iran’s regional ambitions. The ultimate tragedy is that while the leaders of these groups profit from this arrangement, it is their people who continue to pay the price in lives and shattered futures.
