On route from my from Delhi to Goa, I took time to analyse the political occurrences in Goa and across India over the last few weeks, post BJP winning a majority mandate from the people of India
Of course BJP including 10 Congress MLAs into their party-fold came as a rude shock.
The Congress MLAs wanting to join BJP did not surprise me. These 10 MLAs have been wanting to do it since Congress betrayed their aspirations during the debacle of Goa Elections 2017 Elections results for the Congress and the BJP political machinations later.
Congress was the single-largest party but could not form the Goa government due to the internal bickering for CM’s chair by the four of the five Congress leaders who are the only remaining Congress MLAs in the Goa Assembly right now.
Digvijay Singh the then AICC General Secretary and Goa Desk-in-Charge could even muster the prudence to put in a letter of intent to the Goa governor because he was busy working out his own personal deal sitting with alliance partners, who then joined BJP.
If you look at BJP’s strategy nationally. You will notice that right now it wants to ensure that it gains maximum foothold in all the states across India.
So it will partner with political rivals who differ completely from their ideology, some accused in corruption cases, some accused of raping a minor (like in Goa) or some as part of NDA who extends support to religious leaders who commit rapes. The logic communicated by foot soldiers on social media and mainstream media is that ’Trust Modi, Trust Amit Shah’.
Furthermore logic is dished out that BJP is working on a ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ mission.
So I am left thinking when you mean Congress Mukt Bharat what are you referring too to get rid off – the ideology, the Nehru progeny leaders or the political leaders that make up the Congress party. And in the last five years which of the above has been achieved other than gaining power in different states and also losing in some states where you had power, then coming back through political machinations to form the government.
Let’s take Goa for example. If ’Trust Modi, Trust Shah’ was truly working then it should have swept the 2017 Goa Assembly Elections, at that time we the people of Goa also had a ’Trust Parrikar’ as an added advantage but it dropped from 22 seats to 13 seats. BJP only formed the government because Congress were caught napping with their pants down on the beaches of Miramar. The allies extended support and BJP dished out the ministerial portfolios to the alliance partners and kept CM position.
Post Parrikar sudden demise, BJP supporters across India and Goa mooted ’Trust Modi, Trust Shah’.
So how come in the Lok Sabha Election, BJP lost out on South Goa, which had sitting Member of Parliament – Narendra Sawaikar. BJP could not even defend the Late Manohar Parrikar’s constituency which was eventually won by Babush Monseratte who has now joined BJP. It had fielded a good candidate – Siddharth – who had won that constituency before for BJP under the guidance of Parrikar.
Now let me tell you what I think will be the eventual outcome and in order to arrive at that you need to understand that the real face of the Goan politician. It is not one of party loyalism but of accrual of personal benefits by positioning oneself into the seat of power.
Nine MLAs wanted to join BJP as early as 2017. But the Late Manohar Parrikar opted for the alliance route because he trusted the people in the alliance parties Goa Forward Party (GFP) and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) more than dissenting MLAs from Congress. Parrikar believed in the ethics of party politics. Mauvin Godinho wanted to join BJP when he was a Congress MLA, Parrikar could have easily got him to resign and join BJP, as BJP was in power. But he did not do that. Godinho was asked to contest the election during the 2017 election.
Since the sickness of Parrikar there has been a movement of the money cartel in Goa to have him replaced by a leader more in their control. In fact, if I jog my memory, there was an attempt to replace Parrikar during his illness to put in position a former Congress leader who joined BJP. He has an unflinching desire to be Chief Minister. It was he who cajoled a few BJP Core Committee members to push for a change in leadership.
When Parrikar saw the shaping up of this plan, he nipped it in the bud. But then the snakes tried to put forth BJP MP Shripad Naik as CM candidate or as a last resort BJP President Vinay Tendulkar. That was crushed by Amit Shah, who refused to take any stand as long as Parrikar was alive.
In fact Amit Shah sent leaders senior leaders from High Command to assess the Goa situation, they in turn fired the BJP senior loyal leaders who tried to warn the party of the possible outcomes of Congress MLAs joining BJP and also of the current games by other BJP leaders. But Amit Shah’s foot soldiers like most foot soldiers that come to Goa – eat, drink, meet only leaders of importance and then go back having a holiday.
I think the exodus of Congress MLAs into BJP is being orchestrated by common friends of the Congress and BJP in the state and Centre; these political leaders have strong connects with the real estate, casino business, tourism and mining lobbies. The lobbies that control the money flow and real estate development in Goa.
Parrikar out of the way unfortunately on account of a sudden demise, now allows for unprecedented push to large scale real estate development in Go – in pockets of South Goa, North Goa in Panjim, St Cruz, Taleigao and St Andre and North-most part of Goa.
If you go back in time Vishwajit Rane and Babush Monseratte ran a riot with the Regional Plan when they were in the Congress government in 2007. The Regional Plan was scraped after a huge protest by Goans because almost 90 per cent of the plan was done illegally and threw hoards of money to cater to the real estate lobby.
Mauvin Godinho, Pandurang Madkaikar, Vishwajit Rane, Babush Monseratte, Chandrakant (Babu) Kavlekar and Nilkanth Halankar are big players in the real estate and other businesses too. It is no surprise that the business lobby focusing on Goa needed to push them into position of power – a position of power held by BJP at this point of time and without Parrikar.
In the long run, Modi and Amit Shah will become victims of their own decisions to induct these ministers of the business lobby into BJP because the people of Goa will now take this betrayal seriously and will reject both Congress and BJP. The hate though will be more for BJP.
Do I ’Trust Modi, Trust Shah’ on matters of Goa. My answer is no. Because Goa to them, like most National Parties, is always about two Lok Sabha seats and One Rajya Sabha seat. The decline of BJP in Goa started when they started inducting tainted Congress MLAs.
Modi and Shah assume that by having 27 MLAs in government, they control the people of Goa. In 2012, Congress had 23 but fell to 9. In 2017 BJP had 22 but fell to 13. This simple statistics means that the people of Goa are a different breed of voters, they can vote you out or muddy your waters.
This move will destroy the real essence of Parrikar’s BJP in Goa and give a lease of life to Congress within Congress and Congress within BJP.