Nowadays the hottest political topic trending is the Bengal elections 2021. In 2021 the danger is much more real for the ruling party of Bengal Trinamool Congress (TMC). Three of its powerful leaders have shifted to BJP. Unfortunately, not even the political strategist of TMC Prashant Kishore can say when and where this series of shifting will stop. The switches have been damaging for a party that runs on personality craze.
However, the personality of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has always been the final stop and start at district level, TMC has depended on local staunch like the recently BJP-welcomed Suvendu Adhikaari, Rajib Banerjee and many more. Not only this but in this assembly elections, TMC is looking at one of the webs of social and political division. Religion, caste, language have all come into play and even fractures among them are used for political benefits.
Also, one of the huge TMC’S worries is the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. After a meeting of AIMIM and Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui things changed. Owaisi had said that he backs Siddiqui’s plans and Siddiqui earlier had mentioned that he will contest from 45 seats in the state. This equation has major effects in a state that according to latest Census has 27.1% Muslim population. Which mean heavy Muslim population with three districts Murshidabad, Malda, and Uttar Dinajpur with more than 50% Muslim population. Muslim voters are a deciding factor in at least 90 seats in the state.
From 2011 when TMC came to power after defeating the left front, it has received the huge support of Muslim community which increased over the years. This helped the party in polarised 2019 elections. This time also according to most of the online surveys while Hindu votes went to BJP, Muslims voted in ever large numbers for TMC. Owaisi’s influence is considered being limited to Urdu-speaking Muslims in Bengal. AIMIM may win a few seats in South Bengal and where it does not a split in Muslim votes could hurt TMC.
BJP is yet to figure out a way to not walk into TMC’s ‘Insider vs Outsider’ campaign. BJP’s pitch for CAA had managed to win over a section of the community that could be a deciding factor of over 40 constituencies. On the other side Mamata’s pitch that people from Matua community that had come to West Bengal as refugees from East Pakistan are citizens of the state has gained more ground.
BJP however has more on its side now. In the violent landscape of Bengal politics both BJP and TMC must deal with many challenges and stress between its old timers and new entrants.