When Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, few imagined that his brand of diplomacy—rooted in cultural pride, strategic patience, and calculated pragmatism—would one day turn adversarial regional narratives into opportunities for deeper cooperation. Yet, this is precisely what has unfolded in the Maldives, where a high-voltage ‘India Out’ campaign has now given way to an official invitation for Prime Minister Modi to visit the island nation. The once icy diplomatic winds are warming again, not by accident, but by design—through Modi’s classic carrot-and-stick diplomacy.
The Rise of the ‘India Out’ Campaign
Let’s begin with context. The ‘India Out’ campaign in the Maldives wasn’t born overnight. It was a well-orchestrated political movement engineered by certain sections of Maldivian politics, primarily by now-President Mohamed Muizzu and his supporters. The campaign alleged undue Indian influence over Maldivian sovereignty—particularly fixating on the presence of Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives for humanitarian and surveillance operations. But beneath the nationalistic rhetoric was a deeper game, influenced by external forces, especially China, which has been trying to expand its strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean Region through debt diplomacy and soft power manipulation.
India, under Prime Minister Modi, was fully aware of this geopolitical undercurrent. Yet, rather than retaliating through sharp statements or abrupt diplomatic disengagement, Modi opted for a nuanced, layered approach—one that used restraint as strength and maturity as leverage.
The Carrot: Tactical Withdrawal and Open Channels
India’s initial response was deliberate and measured. New Delhi announced it would withdraw military personnel from Maldives by May 2024, as requested by the Muizzu administration. This move, while seemingly a concession, was actually a strategic carrot. It signaled India’s willingness to listen and respect Maldivian sovereignty, effectively robbing the ‘India Out’ campaign of its most emotive rallying point.
India also ensured that development projects—roads, hospitals, housing, and water supply infrastructure—continued unhindered. There was no retaliation in aid cuts, no halt to people-to-people exchanges, and no sharp rhetoric. Instead, New Delhi kept diplomatic channels open, allowing Malé to cool down and reassess its options in an increasingly unstable geopolitical climate.
The Stick: Strategic Pressure Behind the Scenes
But the carrot didn’t come without a stick.
India, without public drama, made it clear that its support isn’t unconditional. While it respected the democratic mandate of Muizzu’s government, New Delhi was prepared to pause or scale down its strategic support if Malé continued playing into Chinese hands. Behind the scenes, funding timelines slowed, high-level visits were postponed, and New Delhi recalibrated its diplomatic warmth to signal disapproval without shutting the door.
International observers began to notice that Maldives, having played the China card too boldly, was now feeling the pressure of isolation. Meanwhile, Beijing’s promises remained as elusive as ever—wrapped in glossy brochures but loaded with debt. The Maldivian leadership, particularly its economic and security establishment, realized that India might be the only consistent and credible partner in the region.
The U-Turn: From ‘India Out’ to India In
It’s against this backdrop that the recent diplomatic U-turn must be understood. In July 2025, the Maldivian government formally invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit the country—marking a significant softening of stance. This isn’t merely a ceremonial visit; it’s an admission that India’s regional value is too critical to ignore.
Muizzu’s government now speaks of “enhancing bilateral ties” and “leveraging regional partnerships”—a far cry from the rhetoric that fuelled his election campaign. The same administration that once questioned India’s presence now seeks its leadership to stabilize the region’s economic and security frameworks.
This shift is no accident. It is diplomacy by design—crafted by a leader who understands that strategic patience, when blended with subtle pressure, can bend even the most rigid political posturing.
What makes this development more significant is that it serves as a template for Indian diplomacy in the wider Indian Ocean Region. The Maldives episode demonstrates how India can assert itself as a benevolent power—firm yet non-imperialistic, generous yet clear-eyed.
China may offer cheque books, but India offers trust. Where Beijing comes with strings, India comes with shared history, cultural ties, and a vision for regional stability. The Maldives’ reversal is not just a foreign policy win; it’s a referendum on the kind of leadership India offers under Narendra Modi.
Modi’s Indo-Pacific Chessboard
Prime Minister Modi is not just playing a game of bilateral diplomacy with the Maldives. He is making strategic moves on the Indo-Pacific chessboard. Each engagement—be it with Mauritius, Sri Lanka, Seychelles, or Maldives—reinforces India’s position as the net security provider and development partner in the Indian Ocean.
While other powers expand through coercion, Modi’s India expands through consensus. This soft power approach, underpinned by firm red lines, has not only neutralized an anti-India narrative but turned it into an opportunity for stronger regional integration.
In a significant diplomatic gesture, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu to his swearing-in ceremony for his historic third term. The invitation came despite strained ties following Muizzu
The invitation to PM Modi by the Maldives is not a matter of protocol—it’s a public acknowledgement that in the geopolitical currents of the Indian Ocean, India is the anchor that holds.
And in that calm, steady anchor lies the genius of Modi’s diplomacy:
He does not need to shout to be heard. He does not need to coerce to be respected. He leads not just by power, but by presence.
From ‘India Out’ to ‘India In’, the story of Maldives is the story of Indian diplomacy at its best—visionary, strategic, and unmistakably Modi.
