History repeats itself as after the USSR, the USA has faced the situation. They fought a War, which was not theirs. Al Qaeda, ISIS, Iraq were Frankenstein monsters. Trump had already thrown the Afghanistan Government under the Bus when he announced the withdrawal of US Troops. The Biden Administration could not undo the Announcements as probably the new Czars realized that the world is hardly crazy for Oil and there is no need to create War to Jack up prices of Oil and Arms, sell and make Profits.
A country like India has started moving towards Self-reliance in arms and warfare has another dimension of defence challenges like Cyber Warfare and recently grappling Bio warfare. Drone Warfare has turned tables in favour of countries who had better capabilities in drone and counter drone Technology. Conventional Big daddies of arms (Like Mechanized Infantry) will not be needed much.
A few readings too much in this will tell you that US withdrawal shouldn’t be seen as it is but the US is getting ready for another war, probably in the South China Sea.
If you see the strategy, the US doesn’t fight any War with any Nuclear Nation reasons being simple that repercussions of war with a Nuclear Nation would weigh too much and will sink the Government of the Day had any hit happened as a counter on US soils. We shall see this space as whether this calculation gets wrong. It boosts further that the US has not dared even to touch North Korea apart from sanctions and covert operations which is a consistent threat to Japan and S.Korea, allies of the US.
Returning to Afghanistan, the US did not know who was fighting with whom there and it looked that every tribe was fighting with each other for reasons known best to these tribes only. No one was friends with them, they could not trust anyone, and it was like the Middle East before the Oil era.
What was lacking is that Afghanistan was never built to have a strong Military but kept on ruled and managed militarily only, even the existence of its Governments. Problem was multiplied with Pakistan harbouring and playing an active role of siding with one Tribe to target another in search of land, money and control over Afghanistan. They played hide and Seek with the US all through 20 years although on face of it supported the War of the US and extracted blood money for it. Taliban the procreation of Pakistan who wanted Rule of Islam by Sharia laws as pretext to Terrorism and Violence to throw out Governments, have Pakistani influence in Afghanistan on one hand and money tap open from them on other hand in name of providing logistics support to US operations. This farce was very well played by Pakistan .In Pakistan there are Moderates like Shias and countries like Iran who have majority as moderates but they wanted Taliban to establish rule of Sharia in Afghanistan.
India too wanted to have peaceful relations with a democratically elected Government as it helped us to balance Trade and historical cultural relations with Neighbours. Pakistan never likes to see India s Party in Afghanistan because of hostile policies towards us. Afghanistan becomes a colony and backyard for illicit trade of Arms, Drugs (Poppy) to finance its Terror organizations. Using Afghan militias in promoting Terrorism to establish rule of Islam in all over world, which is their foreign Policy of Peace, Tolerance, Growth and Development of business.
The Afghan Taliban in Administration is a dark hole, which only has light for Pakistan and its Iron brother China. China has failed one belt one road (OBOR) and they see regions of Afghanistan as possible alternatives to revive OBOR and spread to counter Pakistan’s problem of sectarian violence, which mars any business initiatives. China is ready to fire from the Shoulder of Pakistan and shall provide loans to restructure regions under control of Taliban. They shall again do what they have done to Srilanka, Malaysia, Pakistan, Nepal and African Countries who took loans to fund development of their Nations.
We have actively participated in reconstruction of Afghanistan and with the emergence of Taliban backed by Terrorists from Pakistan and their Army and Air force in disguise of Taliban militia; everything is in danger of being destroyed since it serves their purpose to keep India out of there.
Once having total control over Afghanistan Pakistan and China will divert these terrorists to fight in Kashmir, the headache for us. The people displaced by Taliban as refugees will go to Iran, Tajikistan and other neighbouring countries, which shall give rise to humanitarian crises for the World.
Is there a Counter and way out?
Answer is No as with Taliban advancing current Government will be crushed and hooliganism shall prevail. No one likes to fight the War for Afghanistan. India will be actively working with countries like Tajikistan, Iran, and Qatar including Russia to balance things and the fast developing situation so that our Assets and Interest are not hurt with advancing Taliban.
No one knows that China is being invited in this dark hole to get engaged just like the US and USSR to burn their currency so that other nations could catch up with China economically as Corona has slowed down economies and devastated businesses. Whoever has money gets itchy to fight Wars as they can afford it. This just could be thwarted as wishful thinking as time will tell as things unfold.
It is to be seen that Afghanistan will be a permanent battleground at the cost of its people with new players thronging themselves locking horns with each other.
We as a country should play a more active part if we get a chance to develop the Army and Air force of Afghanistan so that they defend themselves and avoid their land becoming the target and playground of War games big Boys love to Play and Ulterior motives of Pakistan. We have done good to generate good will by building dams, training their Army and taking up reconstruction Work. We need the US to pump money and we being close to them develop what was lacking when the US left Afghanistan. A democratic Afghanistan and that too a Peaceful one is a challenge more than being envisaged but we have no other option but to do it to keep ourselves protected and screw Pakistan’s nefarious designs at the behest of China.
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