Sri Lanka’s political landscape is entering a decisive phase, with the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe facing an uphill battle in the upcoming election. As the island nation grapples with economic, social, and political challenges, a powerful alliance of Sino-Wahhabi-Left elements appears to be gaining ground, potentially reshaping the future of Sri Lanka—and its relations with neighboring India.
The Sino-Wahhabi-Left lobby in Sri Lanka represents a convergence of Chinese influence, Wahhabi Islamist elements, and the Left-wing political forces. Each brings its own agenda, but together they form a potent coalition with a shared interest in reducing Western influence, promoting authoritarian governance, and advancing a mix of radical religious ideologies and state-controlled economics.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been central to its engagement with Sri Lanka. Key infrastructure projects, such as the Hambantota Port, have entrenched Chinese economic and political influence in the country. Debt diplomacy has made Sri Lanka increasingly dependent on Beijing, giving China significant leverage in the country’s political and economic decision-making.
Wahhabi Islam, with its strict interpretation of Islam, has been gaining a foothold in Sri Lanka, particularly after the Easter Sunday bombings in 2019. While the Muslim community in Sri Lanka is diverse, there are fears that foreign-funded religious movements, particularly from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf states, could radicalize parts of the Muslim population.
The leftist political factions in Sri Lanka, traditionally associated with anti-Western rhetoric and socialist policies, have found common cause with both Chinese communism and Wahhabi Islamist forces. These groups promote a narrative of national sovereignty, anti-imperialism, and resistance to Western liberalism, often targeting India as a proxy of Western influence in the region, though India is about stamping its authority in the geopolitical landscape.
Ranil Wickremesinghe, long seen as a pro-Western leader with moderate economic policies, is under intense pressure. His handling of the country’s economic crisis, including the painful negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has drawn criticism. Many voters, frustrated by rising prices, unemployment, and corruption, are turning toward alternatives that promise stronger governance, economic revival, and national pride—qualities often promoted by the Sino-Wahhabi-Left alliance.
For India, the rise of the Sino-Wahhabi-Left lobby in Sri Lanka is a strategic nightmare. As a regional power, India has long sought to maintain influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and ensure stability in its immediate neighborhood. A Sri Lanka more closely aligned with China and radical Islamist forces could undermine this balance.
China’s growing footprint in Sri Lanka, including its control over strategic assets like ports, poses a direct threat to India’s maritime security. The Indian Ocean is a vital corridor for global trade, and China’s influence there could challenge India’s dominance in the region.
The Wahhabi influence could further destabilize Sri Lanka, heightening religious tensions and potentially spilling over into India’s southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu, which shares ethnic and cultural ties with Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority. India has already faced challenges from radical Islamist movements, and the spread of Wahhabi ideology could fuel further unrest.
With Bangladesh already facing challenges from Islamic radicals, as seen in the growing influence of Islamist groups and radical ideologies, India’s neighborhood is becoming increasingly volatile. If Sri Lanka falls further into the orbit of China and Islamist forces, India will find itself encircled by hostile or unreliable neighbors, complicating its regional strategy.
The political shift in Sri Lanka could have a cascading effect across South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. Bangladesh’s political climate is already witnessing the influence of radical Islamist forces. If Sri Lanka also aligns itself with a Sino-Wahhabi-Left axis, it could embolden similar movements in other South Asian countries like the Maldives, Bangladesh and even Pakistan, which has its own strategic ties with China.
Moreover, this shift could lead to an erosion of democratic institutions in the region, with authoritarianism becoming the dominant political model. China’s support for non-democratic regimes across the world, combined with the radicalization brought about by Wahhabi forces, presents a serious challenge to India’s vision of a democratic, stable, and prosperous South Asia.
The upcoming Sri Lankan election is not just about the future of the island nation but about the balance of power in the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean Region. The rise of the Sino-Wahhabi-Left lobby presents a multi-faceted threat to India, with geopolitical, security, and ideological ramifications. As Sri Lanka teeters on the edge of this political transformation, New Delhi must closely monitor the developments and prepare for a more assertive response to protect its strategic interests in the region.
