The recent developments between Bangladesh and Turkey, especially the meeting between Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus and Turkish Trade Minister Dr. Ömer Bolat on January 9, 2025, mark a significant shift in Dhaka’s foreign policy. As Bangladesh seeks to strengthen its defense sector and boost economic growth through collaboration with Turkey, the implications for its relationship with India are noteworthy. The cooling of bilateral ties between India and Bangladesh, coupled with Dhaka’s pivot towards Turkey, reflects a broader realignment in the region that could have lasting consequences for both countries’ diplomatic and strategic relations.
Historically, India and Bangladesh have enjoyed a robust and multifaceted relationship, characterized by strong economic, cultural, and security cooperation. India played a key role in Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 and has since been a vital partner in trade, defense, and regional stability. However, recent years have seen rising tensions, with issues ranging from water-sharing disputes over the Teesta River to disagreements over border management and trade imbalances. These tensions have been compounded by domestic political changes in Bangladesh, particularly the recent political turmoil surrounding the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the assumption of power by Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus.
Bangladesh’s pivot towards Turkey reflects a growing disillusionment with its relationship with India, as Dhaka seeks alternative avenues for technological collaboration, defense cooperation, and investment. While India has long been Bangladesh’s primary defense partner, supplying arms and equipment, the recent political and diplomatic challenges between the two nations have created a vacuum that Turkey is eager to fill. Bangladesh’s shift towards Turkey signifies a recalibration of its foreign policy priorities, as it looks for partners that can meet its evolving security and economic needs without the constraints of its complex relationship with India.
Turkey’s growing influence in global defense markets and its emphasis on developing indigenous military technologies have made it an attractive partner for Bangladesh. With a robust defense industry, including advanced drones, armored vehicles, and missile systems, Turkey is well-positioned to assist Bangladesh in modernizing its defense sector. This collaboration has the potential to reduce Bangladesh’s dependence on India for military hardware, which could further strain the bilateral relationship between the two neighbors.
The possibility of joint defense projects, technology transfer, and defense investments from Turkey could significantly enhance Bangladesh’s military capabilities. This could have broader regional implications, as it may lead to a shift in the strategic balance of power in South Asia. India, long seen as the dominant regional power, might view this growing relationship between Bangladesh and Turkey as a challenge to its influence in the region.
In addition to defense cooperation, the economic aspect of the Bangladesh-Turkey partnership holds implications for India. Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Yunus emphasized his government’s efforts to create job opportunities for the nation’s youth, highlighting the importance of foreign investment and technological development. Bangladesh’s manufacturing sector, particularly its textiles and garment industries, has been one of the country’s main economic drivers. With Turkey’s expertise in infrastructure development and high-tech industries, the collaboration could help Bangladesh strengthen these sectors.
India has long been one of Bangladesh’s largest trading partners, with substantial trade flows across various industries. However, a growing partnership with Turkey could alter trade dynamics in the region, especially if Bangladesh attracts more investment from Turkish companies in sectors like manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure. Bangladesh’s desire to diversify its foreign economic relations could reduce its dependence on India for trade, further complicating an already delicate relationship.
From India’s perspective, Bangladesh’s increasing defense collaboration with Turkey could raise security concerns, particularly in the context of regional stability. India has long viewed Bangladesh as a key partner in its efforts to counter terrorism and manage security challenges along its eastern borders. Bangladesh has been a critical ally in countering insurgent groups and preventing cross-border terrorism. However, as Bangladesh diversifies its defense ties and seeks new sources of military technology, India may feel that it is losing a strategic ally in its efforts to maintain regional security.
The role of Turkey in Bangladesh’s defense strategy could further complicate matters. Turkey’s growing presence in South Asia and its defense cooperation with countries like Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Somalia has made it a prominent player in the region’s geopolitical dynamics. For India, Turkey’s involvement in Bangladesh’s defense sector may be perceived as part of a broader shift in regional alignments, especially given Turkey’s historical support for Pakistan, India’s archrival. Although Bangladesh has maintained a neutral stance in the India-Pakistan conflict, a deepening defense relationship with Turkey could raise eyebrows in New Delhi, especially if it leads to a more pronounced alignment between Bangladesh and countries that challenge India’s regional influence.
Despite the growing cooperation with Turkey, Bangladesh’s leadership is likely aware of the need to balance its foreign relations carefully. While the shift towards Turkey may offer economic and defense benefits, Dhaka cannot afford to alienate India completely. India remains a critical partner in terms of trade, energy, and regional security. Furthermore, the cultural and historical ties between the two countries remain strong, and any drastic deterioration in relations could have significant domestic and regional repercussions.
For Bangladesh, managing its relationship with India while cultivating stronger ties with Turkey will require a delicate diplomatic balancing act. Dhaka will need to ensure that its growing defense ties with Turkey do not undermine its long-standing relationship with India, particularly in areas of regional security and counterterrorism cooperation.
The deepening collaboration between Bangladesh and Turkey represents a new chapter in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, with potential ramifications for its relationship with India. As Bangladesh seeks to strengthen its defense sector and diversify its economic partnerships, it faces the challenge of balancing its strategic interests with its historical ties to India. While the shift towards Turkey could provide Bangladesh with new opportunities for growth and security, it also risks exacerbating existing tensions with India. How this evolving dynamic plays out will be crucial in shaping the future of India-Bangladesh relations and the broader geopolitics of South Asia.
