Earlier this week, a disturbing propaganda video released by Hamas surfaced, showing 19-year-old Edan Alexander, an American-Israeli hostage, pleading for help. Addressing former U.S. President Donald Trump directly, Alexander appealed for his release from captivity. This calculated move by Hamas aimed to pressure Trump ahead of his return to power as the President-elect of the United States.
But if Hamas expected silence or hesitation, they were in for a rude awakening. Trump responded in a characteristically unrestrained fashion on his Truth Social platform, sending a warning that will undoubtedly reverberate through Hamas and its backers in Tehran. “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” he wrote.
This blunt, uncompromising stance signals that Trump’s return to the Oval Office may usher in a starkly different U.S. approach toward Hamas, its sponsors, and its tactics. For a region already on edge, his words leave little room for interpretation: Trump will not spare Hamas.
Trump’s presidency (2017–2021) was marked by a hardline stance on terrorism and unwavering support for Israel. One of the defining moments of his tenure was the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, a bold move that significantly disrupted Iran’s regional influence and sent a clear message to terrorist groups and their sponsors. The strike drew criticism from some quarters for escalating tensions, but it also solidified Trump’s reputation as a leader unafraid to act decisively against threats to American and allied interests.
Hamas, which the U.S. designates as a terrorist organisation, fits neatly into the framework of adversaries Trump has historically taken on. Its tactics—ranging from indiscriminate rocket attacks on civilians to using hostages as bargaining chips—underscore its reliance on asymmetrical warfare to sustain its influence. By issuing a clear ultimatum, Trump has signaled that these strategies will no longer be tolerated under his administration.
Hamas’s decision to release the propaganda video featuring Edan Alexander was a calculated gamble. The group likely hoped to use Trump’s forthcoming presidency as leverage, banking on the possibility of negotiation or a mediated resolution. Instead, they now face the prospect of a U.S. administration poised to take a far more aggressive posture.
For Hamas, the stakes have never been higher. Trump’s ultimatum effectively ties their actions to the clock, with January 20, 2025, looming as a potential flashpoint. The group’s history of hostage diplomacy—exchanging captives for prisoner releases or political concessions—may not hold up against a leader who has shown an inclination to use force rather than engage in protracted negotiations.
Hamas does not operate in isolation. The group’s primary backer, Iran, plays a pivotal role in financing, arming, and supporting its activities. Trump’s warning is as much a message to Tehran as it is to Hamas. Under his first term, Trump adopted a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran, withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and imposing severe sanctions on the regime. His approach aimed to cripple Iran’s economy and curb its ability to fund proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Should hostilities escalate, Iran will undoubtedly find itself in the crosshairs once more. Trump’s return could see a resurgence of targeted strikes, covert operations, and intensified efforts to dismantle Tehran’s regional influence network. For Iran’s hardliners, this would be a return to a reality where their activities carry immediate and tangible consequences.
Trump’s ultimatum has significant implications for global diplomacy. His forceful rhetoric contrasts sharply with the current administration’s approach, which has emphasized negotiation and humanitarian aid in response to the hostage crisis. While President Biden’s team works to secure the hostages’ release through diplomatic channels, Trump’s statement underscores a more transactional, results-oriented approach that leaves little room for compromise.
This stark difference raises questions about the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East post-January 2025. Allies like Israel may find renewed confidence in a Trump administration willing to take decisive action against shared threats. Meanwhile, adversaries like Iran and its proxies are likely recalibrating their strategies in anticipation of a potential shift in American leadership.
At its core, Trump’s statement is more than just a warning to Hamas. It is a declaration of intent that underscores his broader philosophy on dealing with adversaries. The language—“ALL HELL TO PAY”—is not just hyperbole but a deliberate signal to the world that his presidency will prioritise action over words.
For victims like Edan Alexander, this rhetoric offers a glimmer of hope that their plight will not be ignored. For Hamas and its sponsors, it serves as a stark reminder that the geopolitical landscape is about to change.
With just over a year until Trump’s inauguration, the clock is ticking. Hamas now faces a critical decision: release the hostages and risk appearing weak to its supporters or defy Trump and risk the wrath of a U.S. administration known for its unpredictability and willingness to use force.
One thing is certain: Trump’s ultimatum has shattered any illusions of complacency. As the world watches, the hostage crisis has transformed into a litmus test for the incoming administration’s foreign policy. For Hamas, the message is clear: Trump will not spare those who perpetuate terror. Their window for negotiation is rapidly closing, and the cost of defiance may soon prove too high to bear.
