As Sudan’s civil war continues to devastate the nation, a parallel geopolitical conflict is unfolding between two of the Middle East’s most influential players: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While the fighting on the ground pits the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), behind the scenes, Cairo and Abu Dhabi are engaged in a high-stakes struggle for influence—each backing opposing sides in a war that has already pushed Sudan to the brink of collapse.
The conflict in Sudan, which erupted on April 15, 2023, has been marked by widespread atrocities and a humanitarian catastrophe. Egypt has firmly aligned itself with the SAF, which remains the internationally recognized military institution of Sudan. On the other hand, the UAE has been a key backer of the RSF, despite its claims of neutrality and humanitarian involvement.
The last days of the Biden administration saw sanctions imposed on both sides of the Sudanese war. RSF commander-in-chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) was sanctioned for command responsibility over forces accused of genocide, while SAF leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan faced sanctions for obstructing peace efforts, blocking humanitarian aid, and the alleged use of chemical weapons.
Despite mounting evidence from U.N. and U.S. investigators detailing the UAE’s deep involvement in supporting the RSF, Abu Dhabi has continued to deny its role. However, its claims have been met with increasing skepticism at the highest levels of the U.S. government. During his Senate confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly accused the UAE of “openly supporting an entity that is carrying out a genocide,” signaling a potential shift in Washington’s stance toward Abu Dhabi’s involvement in Sudan.
For Egypt, its support of the SAF is not just about maintaining influence in Sudan—it is an existential necessity. A collapse of the Sudanese state could have dire consequences for Cairo, including a massive influx of refugees, heightened security threats along its southern border, and the erosion of its strategic position in Nile water negotiations.
Sudan’s civil war has already resulted in over 1.2 million Sudanese refugees entering Egypt since April 2023, making them the largest refugee community in the country. If Sudan completely disintegrates, millions more could flee northward, further straining Egypt’s fragile economy.
More critically, Egypt’s Nile water security is directly tied to Sudan’s stability. The ongoing conflict has significantly weakened Sudan’s role as Egypt’s key ally against Ethiopia in negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Historically, Sudan has stood alongside Egypt in resisting Ethiopia’s control over Nile waters. However, as the war drags on, Sudan’s ability to engage in these negotiations has diminished, giving upstream Nile Basin countries an opportunity to advance their interests at Egypt’s expense.
A striking example of this shift came in July 2024 when South Sudan unexpectedly acceded to the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), an initiative that Egypt has long opposed as it undermines its historic water rights. The move underscores the growing instability of Egypt’s position as its traditional allies, weakened by war, are unable to counter Ethiopia’s ambitions effectively.
Egypt and the UAE have historically been close allies, with Abu Dhabi playing a crucial role in supporting the Egyptian economy. Since President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took power in 2013 following the military’s ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood government, Egypt has relied heavily on Gulf states, particularly the UAE, for financial backing.
In a recent demonstration of this partnership, the UAE announced a landmark $35 billion investment to develop the Mediterranean region of Ras El-Hekma, providing a much-needed economic boost to Egypt. Despite these deep economic ties, however, Cairo remains unable to align with Abu Dhabi’s approach to Sudan.
Egypt sees the SAF as the only viable institution capable of maintaining order in Sudan. This belief is reinforced by migration patterns—whenever the SAF regains control of territory, refugees return home, while RSF advances trigger mass displacement. For Cairo, the RSF represents chaos, lawlessness, and a potential long-term threat along its border.
The ongoing divergence between Egypt and the UAE over Sudan highlights the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. While both nations share common interests on many regional issues, Sudan’s civil war has exposed the limits of their strategic alignment.
As the conflict rages on, Sudan’s future remains uncertain. If the war leads to total state failure, Egypt could face an unmanageable refugee crisis and an even weaker position in the battle over Nile waters. Meanwhile, the UAE’s support for the RSF risks further international scrutiny, particularly as accusations of war crimes against the paramilitary group mount.
For now, Sudan remains a battleground not only for its warring factions but also for the competing regional ambitions of Egypt and the UAE. What happens next in this shadow war will have lasting implications, not just for Sudan, but for the entire Horn of Africa and the broader Middle East.
