Washington: Democrat Kamala Harris is leading Republican Donald Trump by two points to command a total of 49% of the votes likely to be cast in the 2024 election, according to the Emerson poll.
The latest in a series of electoral predictions to give the incumbent vice president an edge over the former president in the November 5 race for the White House, the national survey by Emerson College Polling showed Trump having the support of 47% of voting Americans.
Of the balance 4% of unaccounted voters, three percent were “undecided” and 1% “plan to vote for someone else”, the poll said on Thursday.
While 59-year-old Harris and 78-year-old Trump are the only two major party contenders in the election, there are three other registered contestants for the White House race – Jill Stein, a 74-year-old activist and doctor; Cornel West; a 70-year-old activist and academic; and Chase Oliver, a 39-year-old sales executive.
Robert F Kennedy Jr, scion of the famous Kennedy family, dropped out of the race in August, endorsing Trump instead.
Harris herself became a candidate in her own right only in July, after President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection and endorsed her as the Democratic standard-bearer following his disastrous nationally-televised debate with Trump. Prior to that, Harris had been Biden’s running mate for reelection as vice president.
And while she has maintained a lead over Trump after rising to the top of the Democratic ticket, her advantage has been slender. The two candidates are tied almost neck-to-neck in at least three battleground states in the election, a CNN poll showed Wednesday.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, concurred that the difference between the two candidates wasn’t much.
“Suburban voters are split overall: 48% support Harris and 47% Trump,” Kimball said. “Within this lies a gender divide, suburban men breaking for Trump by 17 points, 57% to 40%, and suburban women breaking for Harris by 18 points, 56% to 38%.”
In the 2020 election, the Democratic lead narrowed from four points to two in national polls before Biden re-established his four-point advantage in late September ahead of his first debate then with Trump.
Harris’ first debate with Trump will be on September 10.
