The Economic Survey 2023-24 underscores the pressing need for India to generate nearly 78.5 lakh jobs annually in the non-farm sector until 2030. This effort is crucial to accommodate the rising workforce in the country. The Survey suggests that enhancing the implementation of existing schemes like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI), which aims to create 60 lakh jobs over five years, the MITRA Textile scheme, expected to generate 20 lakh jobs, and the MUDRA scheme, among others, can help meet this employment target.
AI: The Biggest Disruptor
The Survey identifies artificial intelligence (AI) as a significant disruptor in the future of work. While AI presents both risks and opportunities, India’s large and youthful demographic positions it uniquely to navigate these changes. The BPO sector, for instance, faces considerable risk as AI-driven chatbots are expected to revolutionize routine cognitive tasks, potentially leading to a significant decline in employment in the next decade. However, the gradual diffusion of AI is anticipated to boost productivity in the long term.
India’s affinity for technology, evidenced by its successful digital public infrastructure, along with proactive government and industry interventions, can help the country emerge as a key player in the AI age. The Survey highlights the need for robust research and development, suggesting the establishment of an Inter-Agency Coordination Authority for AI to guide research, policy planning, and job creation in this sector.
Embracing AI in India
To foster an AI-enabled ecosystem, the Indian government has launched several initiatives such as ‘Future Skills Prime’, ‘YUVAi: Youth for Unnati and Vikas with AI’ for school students, and ‘Responsible AI for Youth 2022’. The 2024 budget allocated ₹10,300 crore to the India AI Mission, underscoring the government’s commitment to strengthening the AI ecosystem.
The Rise of the Gig Economy
According to NITI Aayog’s estimates, 77 lakh workers were engaged in the gig economy in 2020-21. The Economic Survey 2023-24 projects that this workforce will expand to 2.35 crore by 2029-30, making up 6.7% of the non-agricultural workforce. The Survey emphasizes the importance of social security initiatives for gig and platform workers, highlighting the Code on Social Security (2020) as a significant advancement in this area.
Climate Change and Green Energy Transition
The Survey acknowledges the reality of climate change and its potential impact on jobs and productivity. It highlights the importance of adopting green technologies and transitioning to greener energy alternatives, which are expected to drive job creation through investments in green transition and ESG standards.
India’s Corporate Sector on the Rise
India’s corporate sector is witnessing a significant upturn, with profitability at a 15-year high in FY24. The Survey notes the need for businesses to balance the deployment of capital and labor, emphasizing their responsibility for employment generation and social stability amid the AI revolution.
Agro-Processing and the Care Economy
The Economic Survey 2023-24 advocates for leveraging India’s diverse agro-climatic zones to engage the rural workforce, including women and educated youth, in agro-processing. This sector offers ample opportunities for job creation through existing programs like Mega Food Park, Skill India, Mudra, and one district-one product.
The care economy is also highlighted as a crucial area for job creation and increasing female labor force participation. The Survey stresses the need for a comprehensive elderly care policy and recognizes the economic value of the care sector. It notes that public investment equivalent to 2% of GDP could generate 11 million jobs, with nearly 70% going to women.
Preparing for the Future
The Survey underscores the importance of addressing the care needs of an aging population, with projections indicating that by 2050, 20.8% of India’s population will be elderly. This demographic shift necessitates significant investment in the care sector to support both children and the elderly, thereby creating job opportunities and promoting economic stability.
The Economic Survey 2023-24 outlines a multifaceted approach to job creation and economic growth, emphasizing the importance of AI, the gig economy, green energy, the corporate sector, agro-processing, and the care economy in shaping India’s future.
