In the theatre of global geopolitics, few crises unfold without dragging the rest of the world into their chaos. If and when war breaks out between the United States and Iran, it will not just be a confrontation between a military superpower and a regional heavyweight-it will be a conflict that sends economic tremors, diplomatic aftershocks, and political dilemmas across continents. For India, this is not someone else’s war. This is a moment of reckoning. A war between America and Iran will test India’s diplomatic maturity, strategic clarity, and global ambition. We may not fire a bullet, but the ripples will hit our shores-through oil prices, trade disruptions, regional instability, and the lives of millions of Indians living in the Gulf.
India has traditionally maintained a policy of strategic autonomy, preferring non-alignment over entanglement. But in a world that is becoming more binary by the day-with Washington on one end and Beijing on the other-India can no longer afford the luxury of ambiguity. The choices we make now must be rooted in realism, not ideology. Neutrality in today’s world is not a passive act; it must be an active, assertive, and calculated strategy. The stakes are too high for fence-sitting.
Let’s begin with the most immediate concern-energy security. Iran was once among India’s top oil suppliers, offering crude at discounted prices and flexible payment terms. The Trump-era sanctions forced India to halt imports from Tehran, pushing us toward more expensive and politically sensitive suppliers in the Gulf and the United States. A full-blown war in the Gulf region, particularly involving Iran, could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz-a vital artery for global oil. Such a disruption would send global crude prices skyrocketing, insurance costs soaring, and could place an unbearable financial burden on India’s economy. For a nation that imports over 80% of its crude oil, this is not a theoretical risk-it’s an economic catastrophe in waiting.
Simultaneously, let’s not pretend we are equidistant from both players in this geopolitical storm. The India–US relationship today is deeper than ever-strategically, economically, and militarily. From defence cooperation and intelligence sharing to joint initiatives in the Indo-Pacific and critical technologies, India and America are moving closer in ways that would have been unimaginable two decades ago. Yet, this proximity comes with pressure. Washington has a history of viewing global conflicts in binary terms-friend or foe, ally or adversary. But India must resist being boxed into such a narrow paradigm. We must refuse to be a satellite state to any superpower, even as we value and deepen our partnership with the United States.
At the same time, we cannot afford to abandon Iran. Beyond energy, Iran is a key part of our strategic calculus. The Chabahar port, developed by India, is not just a symbol of Indo-Iranian friendship—it’s a counterweight to China’s Gwadar port in Pakistan and a gateway for India to access Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing a hostile Pakistan. If Iran is destabilised or pushed further into China’s strategic embrace, India risks losing a critical geopolitical lever. Let’s not forget that as we build our “Act West” policy to match our “Act East” ambitions, Iran is not optional-it is essential.
And then comes the human factor. More than eight million Indians live and work in the Gulf region, sending back billions in remittances and forming the backbone of our trade and labour diplomacy. A regional war would not just destabilise oil markets-it could trigger mass evacuations, job losses, and a humanitarian crisis. Indian workers in UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain could be caught in the crossfire of a geopolitical showdown they didn’t choose. As a responsible nation, India must already be preparing for large-scale contingencies and protection mechanisms for its diaspora. This is not just a matter of foreign policy-it is a domestic social and economic imperative.
So what should India’s stance be in the face of this looming war? The answer lies in what I call “Assertive Neutrality with Strategic Backchanneling.” Publicly, India must remain firm in its calls for de-escalation and peace. We must position ourselves as a voice of stability in an unstable region—not as a cheerleader for Washington or a sympathiser for Tehran. We must leverage our credibility in the Global South, our growing clout in BRICS, and our stature as a democracy that understands both Western and Eastern perspectives. Privately, however, we must work our diplomatic channels with both sides. With Washington, we must secure clear exemptions for energy trade and port investments. We must make it clear that India will not tolerate disruptions to its strategic interests under the cover of a broader war. With Tehran, we must continue our engagements quietly but firmly—protecting our stake in Chabahar, securing overland access to Afghanistan, and offering ourselves as a bridge rather than a barricade.
We must also prepare militarily and economically. The Indian Navy must ramp up presence in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman to ensure maritime security. Evacuation plans must be finalised for Indian citizens across the region. Strategic oil reserves must be reviewed and replenished. Trade routes must be recalibrated. India must speak with Gulf allies like UAE and Saudi Arabia to create emergency frameworks for labour and trade continuity.
At the same time, India must resist any temptation to make this a moment of overconfidence. This is not the time to play a moral high horse or mimic America’s often muscular foreign policy. This is the time to play the long game. A war between America and Iran may be a brief flare-up or a prolonged proxy conflict, but India’s interests are long-term. We must emerge from this crisis not as a reactionary state but as a stabilising force-a country that managed to protect its people, safeguard its economy, and rise as a responsible power in a fracturing world.
This war, if it comes, will not just be a clash of armies—it will be a test of vision. Can India rise above rhetoric and assert a foreign policy that is morally grounded but strategically ruthless? Can we speak the language of peace while preparing for all contingencies? Can we align with global powers without becoming their pawns?
The answer lies not in speeches, but in choices. In the coming weeks and months, India must choose not sides-but strategies. Not allegiances-but autonomy. Not appeasement-but assertiveness. Because if we fail to define our stance, the world will define it for us. And in the world of power politics, silence is often seen not as wisdom, but as weakness.
Let India not be weak. Let India be wise. Let India rise-quietly, firmly, strategically.
