Syria, a nation once celebrated for its rich history and cultural diversity, now finds itself at yet another crossroads in its prolonged civil war. Over the past week, a lightning offensive by Islamist-led rebel forces has pushed the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to the brink of collapse. Strategic cities like Aleppo and Hama, long under government control, have fallen for the first time since the conflict began in 2011. The rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are now closing in on Homs, the last major obstacle to severing Damascus from the coastal regions that have served as Assad’s stronghold.
While the fall of Assad’s regime would undoubtedly mark a significant turning point, it raises pressing questions about what comes next for a country already fractured by years of war, foreign interventions, and sectarian divides.
Bashar al-Assad’s rule has always relied on a mix of fear, loyalty, and foreign support. For over five decades, the Assad family has maintained control over Syria through an iron grip on power, bolstered by alliances with Russia, Iran, and groups like Hezbollah. However, the events of recent days have exposed the vulnerability of this regime.
The speed of the rebel advance, coupled with the minimal resistance encountered in some cities, suggests a weakened state apparatus struggling to maintain cohesion. Aleppo and Hama were not just symbolic losses but critical blows to the government’s military and logistical capabilities. If Homs falls, the Assad regime’s ability to govern effectively from Damascus could be irreparably damaged.
This is a remarkable shift for a regime that, just a few years ago, appeared to have regained the upper hand in the war, thanks largely to Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias. Yet, the ongoing war in Ukraine has diverted Moscow’s attention and resources, leaving Assad more isolated than ever before.
The current offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel coalition with roots in the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is a controversial figure who has rebranded himself and his group to gain broader acceptance. Once dismissed as a fringe extremist, al-Jolani has emerged as a pivotal player in Syria’s opposition.
Al-Jolani’s transformation from a loyalist of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi to the face of the Syrian rebellion is emblematic of the complex and evolving nature of the conflict. While HTS remains an Islamist group, it has sought to distance itself from overt extremism, attempting to project an image of a nationalist force dedicated to liberating Syria from Assad’s rule.
However, this rebranding raises questions about the future direction of Syria under HTS leadership. Critics argue that the group’s roots in extremism cannot be ignored, and there is concern that a rebel victory could lead to the imposition of hardline Islamist policies, alienating large segments of Syria’s diverse population.
Syria’s civil war has always been a proxy battleground for regional and global powers. The current offensive underscores how deeply entangled the conflict remains in the geopolitical rivalries of the Middle East.
Turkey’s support for the rebels highlights its longstanding opposition to Assad. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has consistently called for Assad’s removal, seeing the Syrian leader as both a humanitarian and strategic threat. By backing HTS, Turkey is not only advancing its own interests in Syria but also challenging the influence of Iran and Russia, Assad’s key allies.
Meanwhile, Iran, Iraq, and Syria have held urgent meetings in Baghdad, signalling Tehran’s concern over the rapid developments. For Iran, Assad’s regime is a crucial ally in its “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the West. Losing Syria would deal a significant blow to its regional ambitions.
Russia, on the other hand, appears more cautious. With its military resources stretched thin in Ukraine, Moscow’s capacity to provide significant support to Assad is limited. This reluctance leaves Assad increasingly vulnerable and raises questions about Russia’s long-term commitment to his survival.
Adding to the complexity, HTS has reportedly reached out to Russia and China, seeking to establish diplomatic ties. This move suggests that the rebels are aware of the importance of international legitimacy in shaping Syria’s post-war future.
The potential collapse of Assad’s regime offers no guarantees of stability or peace. While the rebels are united in their goal of overthrowing Assad, Syria’s opposition has historically been plagued by infighting and competing visions for the country’s future.
A rebel victory would likely lead to a new power struggle, as various factions vie for control of the country. This scenario could result in further violence, displacing even more Syrians and deepening the humanitarian crisis.
Moreover, the fate of Syria’s minorities, including Alawites, Christians, and Kurds, remains uncertain. These communities have often been caught in the crossfire, and their security could be jeopardised under a new Islamist-led government.
As Syria teeters on the brink, the international community faces a critical test. Will global powers prioritise the well-being of the Syrian people, or will they continue to treat the country as a chessboard for their own interests?
For the United States and Europe, the immediate concern should be preventing a humanitarian catastrophe. Millions of Syrians are already displaced, and any escalation in fighting could exacerbate this crisis. Diplomatic efforts must focus on ensuring that aid reaches those in need and that any transition of power includes protections for Syria’s minorities and vulnerable populations.
At the same time, regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia must recognize that their long-term interests lie in a stable and unified Syria. Supporting factions that perpetuate violence or sectarianism will only prolong the conflict.
Syria’s future hangs in the balance as the rebel offensive continues to challenge Assad’s regime. While the fall of Assad may seem imminent, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. The Syrian people, who have borne the brunt of this war for over a decade, deserve more than a change in leadership; they deserve a lasting peace that addresses their grievances and aspirations.
Whether that peace can be achieved depends on the actions of both Syrians and the international community in the critical weeks and months ahead.
