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Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Whispers of War, Echoes of Warnings: The Bibi Factor Behind Operation Midnight Hammer

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In the blistering deserts of West Asia, beneath the shadows of ancient empires and over the ever-simmering tensions of modern-day rivalries, a silent war has been waged for decades. It is not merely a conflict of weapons and territory, but one of narratives, warnings, and reputations. And at the centre of this whirlwind stands a man whose voice has echoed from the podiums of the Knesset, the United Nations, and the U.S. Congress – Benjamin Netanyahu, or simply, “Bibi” to the world.

For over three decades, Netanyahu has been the global face of Israeli apprehension over Iran. His speeches have never been lacking in drama or urgency. He didn’t just warn; he sounded alarms. Not once, but over and over again, with timelines that seemed to reset with each passing year. As early as 1992, Bibi thundered in the Knesset that Iran was just “three to five years” away from building a nuclear bomb. In 1995, in his book Fighting Terrorism, he doubled down on the same timeline. And since then, he’s rarely gone silent.

Fast-forward to 2025. The region is in flames. Operation Rising Lion is underway, and the echoes of American B-2 bombers striking deep into Iranian territory have barely faded. Days earlier, Operation Midnight Hammer was unleashed, a precision campaign by the United States to obliterate key Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Fordow site near Qom reportedly “taken off the table” by GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators. But amidst all the tactical brilliance, one question lingers like smoke over the battlefield: Was this operation about Iran? Or was it about Netanyahu?

 

The Cassandra of the Middle East

There is something tragic, almost Shakespearean, about Netanyahu’s arc. Like Cassandra of Troy, he has been predicting doom for decades. But unlike the mythical seer, Netanyahu has had power – real, executive power – to act on his convictions. From his first tenure as Prime Minister in 1996 to his record-breaking re-election streak, Bibi has made Iran the singular thread in his foreign policy tapestry.

In 2002, while not in office, he stood before the U.S. Congress and warned about Saddam Hussein’s alleged weapons of mass destruction, linking Iraq’s nuclear ambitions with Iran’s. The U.S., following a similar belief, invaded Iraq in March 2003. Iran, in turn, expanded its regional influence in the chaos that followed.

By 2009, Netanyahu was back as Prime Minister and stood at the United Nations General Assembly, declaring Iran’s nuclear program “the gravest threat to our existence since the War of Independence.” He wasn’t alone in thinking so. Mossad reports, IAEA findings, and Western think tanks often concurred on Tehran’s pursuit of enrichment. But it was Netanyahu’s tone, apocalyptic, visceral, that often set him apart.

His 2012 cabinet meeting birthed the infamous “axis of evil” rhetoric aimed at Assad’s Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran. By 2013, speaking directly to the Iranian people via BBC Persian, he warned that a nuclear Iran would plunge them into “eternal servitude.” In 2014 and beyond, he returned to the UN podium, each time with a prop, a diagram, or a deadline, each time reiterating the same message with new urgency.

 

A Region on the Brink

In 2023, Bibi raised the stakes even higher: “Iran is responsible for 90% of the problems in the Middle East… We will not wait for a sharp sword to be placed on our necks.”

This wasn’t hyperbole. The region had begun to tilt toward chaos. Proxies clashed from Beirut to Basra. Iranian drones buzzed over Gulf waters. The nuclear clock, in Bibi’s estimation, was no longer ticking. It was thumping.

In early 2024, Israeli air raids intensified over Syrian territory, thinly veiled attempts to disrupt Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah. On 1 December 2024, Assad’s regime finally fell, caught between rebellion, sanctions, and Israeli encroachment. For Netanyahu, this was vindication, a culmination of years of portraying Syria as a terror satellite.

Then came February 2025. Netanyahu, with typical flourish, declared that Israel and the U.S. were standing “shoulder to shoulder” to thwart Iran. “Every terrorist group, every destabilizing activity” could be traced back to Tehran, he insisted.

Barely four months later, in June 2025, he escalated the rhetoric to its highest pitch. “Iran’s nuclear program,” he warned, “is a clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival… It could be a year. It could be within a few months, less than a year.”

But as the IDF marched into southern Syria and Operation Rising Lion kicked off in 2025, the American silence was palpable. For a while, Washington appeared fatigued. Even the Republican hawks had started to question the sustainability of a perpetual Israeli-Iran standoff. Yet, Netanyahu’s rhetoric only grew louder.

He wasn’t just sounding the alarm. He was hammering on Washington’s door.

 

Enter Operation Midnight Hammer

The timing of the U.S. operation against Iran was uncanny. Operation Midnight Hammer struck deep into Iran’s most hardened facilities. Fordow was hit. Natanz reportedly disabled. Satellite imagery showed plumes of smoke curling out of bunkers thought to be impenetrable.

According to reports, the U.S. conveyed through back channels that no further strikes were planned, this was not regime change. This was not a war. This was “containment.”

But the question remains: why now?

The official line from Washington was simple. Iran had crossed “technical thresholds” in enrichment. But those thresholds had existed in various forms for months. What had changed, many wondered, was not Iran’s centrifuges, but Netanyahu’s volume. He had begun to corner the Biden administration, the Pentagon, even the NATO consensus. Every delay in action was being interpreted, in Tel Aviv and beyond, as weakness.

For some U.S. officials, especially in election season, that was politically dangerous.

Thus, was Operation Midnight Hammer a surgical strike against nuclear capability, or was it a geopolitical sedative for a hyper-vocal ally? A means of asserting U.S. primacy in West Asia while muting the persistent cries of Netanyahu?

 

The Bibi Dilemma

To understand the question, one must understand Netanyahu’s unique position. No other Israeli leader, past or present, has so obsessively centred his premiership around one external threat. For Bibi, Iran isn’t just a security problem. It is a personal crusade.

This singular focus has allowed him to frame almost every regional crisis, from Gaza to Beirut, from Red Sea piracy to drone swarms, as a chapter in the Iran playbook. And to an extent, he’s not wrong. Iran does bankroll militias. It does operate a vast covert network across West Asia. It has refused to come clean on certain nuclear aspects. But in Bibi’s rhetoric, complexity vanishes. Only the binary remains: Iran, or oblivion.

This absolutism has often unnerved American administrations. Presidents from Clinton to Obama to Biden have wrestled with Netanyahu’s aggressive public diplomacy. While intelligence channels remained robust, the optics were always difficult. Netanyahu wasn’t just warning the world, he was warning Washington.

Thus, Operation Midnight Hammer may also be viewed as a move to “reclaim the narrative.” By acting decisively, Washington hoped to quieten Netanyahu’s alarms, reassert strategic calm, and prevent further unilateral Israeli escalations that might plunge the region into a full-scale war.

 

What Now?

As smoke clears over Iranian mountains and diplomats scramble in Vienna and Muscat, the real test lies ahead. Netanyahu remains defiant. Iran is wounded but not eliminated. Its proxies are regrouping. Hezbollah has already promised “response in kind.” In Iraq, Shia militias are mobilizing. The Gulf States, watching from the sidelines, are bracing for missile spillovers.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu may claim victory, but also vindication. For him, every American bomb dropped is proof that he was right all along.

 

But therein lies the paradox.

If Netanyahu is proven right, his urgency justified, then perhaps his voice will only grow louder, more difficult to manage, more impossible to ignore. If, on the other hand, Operation Midnight Hammer succeeds in delaying Iran’s ambitions for another five years, Netanyahu may recalibrate the clock once more.

Three to five years. Again.

 

Conclusion: The Operation and the Orator

West Asia has always been a region where wars are fought not only with weapons but with words. In this theatre, Bibi Netanyahu is a veteran actor. His speeches have become part of the region’s lexicon. He is not just an observer of the crisis, he is a participant, an instigator, a pressure point.

Operation Midnight Hammer may have targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but it also carried a subtext: a message to Netanyahu that the world is listening, and acting. The question is, for how long?

Because as long as Bibi speaks, the drums of war will never fall silent.

Mayank Chaubey
Mayank Chaubey
Colonel Mayank Chaubey is a distinguished veteran who served nearly 30 years in the Indian Army and 6 years with the Ministry of External Affairs.

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