Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has long operated as the shadowy force behind instability in South Asia, backing jihadist networks in Afghanistan, fomenting terrorism in India, and now, playing a pivotal role in destabilizing Bangladesh. While successive U.S. administrations have tolerated Pakistan’s duplicity, the second term of Donald Trump could bring a reckoning unlike any before. The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 was a stark warning to all state-backed terror networks: no one is untouchable. Given Pakistan’s deep entanglement in Bangladesh’s current chaos, its patronage of radical Islamist groups, and its hand in the persecution of minorities, the ISI has every reason to fear Trump’s return to power.
The killing of Soleimani was not just about Iran; it was about sending a global message. Trump’s decision to eliminate one of the most influential figures in Middle Eastern geopolitics proved that he does not engage in endless deliberation when dealing with threats—he acts. Unlike past U.S. presidents who hesitated in fear of escalating tensions, Trump took out Soleimani in a targeted drone strike, demonstrating a level of decisiveness that sent shockwaves through intelligence agencies worldwide. This precedent should alarm the ISI, which has been responsible for harboring terrorists for decades, from Osama bin Laden to the Taliban leadership. If Trump sees the ISI’s activities in Bangladesh as a direct threat to regional stability and American interests, there is little doubt that he would be willing to take equally forceful action.
In recent months, Bangladesh has witnessed a political upheaval engineered by ISI-backed forces. The ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a fierce opponent of Pakistan’s influence in the region, was a calculated move to install a more pliant regime. Hasina’s government had actively cracked down on radical Islamist groups and brought to justice war criminals from Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War—many of whom were aligned with Pakistan’s military. These actions infuriated the ISI, which has long viewed Bangladesh as a crucial battleground in its quest to expand Islamist control. By orchestrating her removal and installing an interim caretaker government, the ISI has effectively positioned Bangladesh at the mercy of its radical Islamist proxies.
A key figure in this transition is Nobel Laureate Mohammed Yunus, whose rise to political prominence has been met with skepticism. While Yunus enjoys a positive international reputation, there is growing concern that his government is serving as a front for ISI-aligned forces. His leadership has coincided with a resurgence of radical elements in Bangladesh, raising fears that the country could be pushed toward an Islamist agenda dictated from Islamabad. The ISI’s long-term goal has always been to turn Bangladesh into a satellite state, controlled by Islamist forces loyal to Pakistan’s strategic interests. If Trump returns to power, he is unlikely to tolerate such developments, especially if they pose a threat to regional security.
Compounding these concerns is the alarming rise in religious persecution under the new regime. Bangladesh, once a beacon of secular governance in South Asia, is now witnessing an escalation of violence against its Christian and Hindu minorities. Temples have been desecrated, Christian communities have been attacked, and Hindu families are being forced to flee their homes as Islamist groups grow bolder under the new administration. This pattern of religious violence mirrors Pakistan’s own legacy of minority persecution, a legacy that has been actively shaped and reinforced by the ISI. Given Trump’s strong stance on religious freedom, his administration is expected to take a hard line against a Bangladesh that mirrors Pakistan’s intolerance and extremism.
Pakistan has long played a dangerous double game with the United States—presenting itself as an ally in the War on Terror while simultaneously harboring and funding terrorist organizations. This strategy worked for decades, but Trump’s first term saw a fundamental shift. In 2018, he cut $1.3 billion in military aid to Pakistan, calling out its failure to crack down on terror networks. He also openly criticized Pakistan’s role in sheltering Osama bin Laden, further signaling his unwillingness to tolerate duplicity. If Trump returns to the White House, Pakistan’s intelligence establishment will likely face even greater scrutiny.
The second Trump presidency could bring severe consequences for the ISI. Targeted sanctions on ISI officials involved in Bangladesh’s destabilization could be implemented swiftly, cutting off their financial networks and restricting their international movements. More aggressive measures could also be on the table—Trump has already demonstrated his willingness to authorize direct military action against high-value targets. If the ISI is perceived as a major destabilizing force in South Asia, its operatives and terror proxies could find themselves on a U.S. hit list. Furthermore, Trump’s return could bring increased pressure on Pakistan’s civilian government to rein in its rogue intelligence agency or face economic repercussions.
In addition to punishing Pakistan, the second-term Trump administration is likely to deepen strategic partnerships with India and pro-democracy forces in Bangladesh. Intelligence-sharing agreements and counterterrorism cooperation between the U.S. and India could be expanded, ensuring that ISI-backed jihadist networks face greater scrutiny and disruption. Bangladesh’s secular voices, who have been sidelined by the current Islamist-leaning regime, could receive more overt American support, pushing back against Pakistan’s influence.
For decades, the ISI has operated with near-total impunity, destabilizing its neighbors while avoiding meaningful consequences. However, the world is shifting, and Trump’s potential return to power could mark the beginning of the end for Pakistan’s unchecked intelligence operations. The assassination of Soleimani was a clear message: those who sponsor and protect terrorism are not beyond reach. If Trump sees the ISI as a threat to regional stability, Pakistan’s intelligence agency may find itself facing the same fate. The days of impunity may be coming to an end, and the ISI would do well to take note before it is too late.
