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Tuesday, August 18, 2026

IMF upgrades global growth forecast as tariffs ease

Key Takeaways

  • The IMF has upgraded its global growth forecast due to some US tariffs on goods being softened.
  • The IMF predicts global growth of three percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026.
  • The IMF has warned of risks that could add to any future economic shocks, including companies having too much stock and making future imports less necessary.

New York: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted stronger global economic growth than it forecast in April in part due to some US tariffs on goods being softened.

A surge in US imports boosted growth as firms tried to beat impending higher import taxes and actions by some governments to boost growth, bumping up the IMF’s latest forecast.

However, higher tariffs and more uncertainty could lead to weaker growth and slower economic activity, the IMF warned.

Meanwhile, the UK growth is predicted to be 1.2 percent this year, and 1.4 percent in 2026, unchanged from revised forecasts set out in May, reports BBC.

The UK is set to be the third fastest growing economy out the world’s so-called most advanced economies this year and the next, after US and Canada.

The IMF has forecast global growth of three percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, up from 2.8 percent and three percent in its April report.

However, that is still below the 3.3 percent rate it had projected for both years in January, prior to US President Donald Trump taking office, and the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7 percent.

The IMF said this has created risks that could add to any future economic shocks, including companies, having too much stock, making future imports less necessary.

Also, firms may have to pay more to store goods, and there was also a risk of items becoming obsolete, it said.

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