For anyone who has followed Middle Eastern geopolitics with even a modicum of seriousness, the Saudi – UAE standoff over Yemen was not a surprise. It was destiny. What exploded into the open on December 30, 2025, was not a sudden fallout but the inevitable collapse of a strategic partnership that had long been held together by convenience, personal chemistry, and shared enemies rather than shared vision.
When Saudi Arabia accused the United Arab Emirates of backing separatist forces in Yemen and followed it up with an airstrike in Mukalla, the message was unmistakable. This was no longer about Houthis or Yemen’s unity. This was Riyadh drawing a red line against Abu Dhabi.
The dramatic removal and flight of Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the face of the Southern Transitional Council, and the subsequent collapse of the STC’s power structure marked the abrupt end of Emirati influence in southern Yemen. More significantly, it fractured the already fragile coalition fighting the Houthis, who continue to dominate much of northern and central Yemen.
Yemen, once again, has become the battlefield where regional rivalries are exposed. But this time, the rupture is not between Gulf states and Iran. It is within the Gulf itself.
From Strategic Brotherhood to Strategic Rivalry
In 2015, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi entered Yemen projecting unity and resolve. The Arab coalition was presented as a decisive force to restore order and counter Iranian influence.
At the heart of this alignment stood Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Abu Dhabi’s power centre, Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Their relationship defined Gulf politics in the latter half of the 2010s. Bin Zayed mentored, legitimised, and championed the young Saudi prince in Western capitals, smoothing his ascent to power.
Together, they blockaded Qatar. Together, they positioned themselves as the architects of a new post–Arab Spring order. Together, they believed power could impose stability.
But such alliances rarely survive ambition.
One Coalition, Two Different Wars
Saudi Arabia and the UAE were never fighting the same war in Yemen.
For Riyadh, Yemen represented a direct national security threat. The Houthis were seen as an Iranian extension operating on Saudi Arabia’s southern flank. Missiles crossing borders turned Yemen into an existential issue.
For Abu Dhabi, Yemen was about influence, ports, trade routes, and dismantling Islamist networks. The STC was not an inconvenience; it was an asset. Southern Yemen offered strategic leverage far beyond its borders.
The Emirati decision in 2019 to withdraw from frontline combat against the Houthis exposed this divergence. Saudi Arabia felt abandoned. The UAE believed it had extracted what it wanted.
From that moment on, the coalition functioned on borrowed time.
Yemen as the Breaking Point
The late-2025 escalation merely stripped away the diplomatic pretence.
Saudi Arabia has entered a phase of strategic de-risking. Vision 2030 demands stability, investor confidence, and predictability. Proxy militias and fragmented sovereignty are liabilities, not assets.
The UAE, by contrast, has demonstrated comfort with risk-taking through non-state actors across the region. From Libya to Sudan and Yemen, Abu Dhabi has shown a willingness to operate in the grey zones of regional power.
This became unacceptable to Riyadh when STC forces advanced into Hadramout and Mahra – territory Saudi Arabia considers critical to its security architecture. The timing of the advance, coinciding with a Gulf summit, was viewed in Riyadh as deliberate provocation.
Yemen crossed from disagreement into confrontation.
Economic Rivalry Turns Geopolitical
The Yemen fallout cannot be separated from the broader Saudi – UAE competition.
Oil policy disagreements, trade regulations, regional headquarters mandates, and competing ambitions in tourism, aviation, entertainment, and logistics have transformed quiet rivalry into open competition. Saudi Arabia is no longer content to play second fiddle to Dubai. Abu Dhabi is unwilling to cede its hard-won dominance.
Yemen became the pressure point where economic competition bled into strategic conflict.
A Dangerous Moment for the Region
This fracture comes at a perilous time.
Yemen remains shattered. Gaza and Lebanon remain volatile. Syria is fragile. Iran faces internal unrest. A divided Gulf leadership weakens any prospect of coordinated regional stability.
A fractured Saudi – UAE axis emboldens adversaries, confuses allies, and multiplies fault lines across an already combustible region.
No Divorce, Just Permanent Distance
There will be no dramatic rupture. Trade will continue. Diplomatic channels will remain open. Neither Riyadh nor Abu Dhabi can afford open hostility.
But the myth of unity is over.
What replaces it is competitive coexistence – two ambitious states, two assertive leaders, and two fundamentally incompatible visions of order in the Middle East. Yemen was the breaking point. And once again, the region will live with the consequences.
