Moscow: The US may not be able to sustain a full-scale war of attrition in the Persian Gulf at the current pace of munition deliveries, according to Russian experts.
Another military analyst from Sweden felt Iran has learned its lessons on national survival from the earlier 12-day war well.
Depletion of ammunition stocks in West Asia and logistical issues may cause major headaches for the US-led coalition, veteran Russian combat pilot Maj. Gen. Vladimir Popov told Sputnik.
“The Americans are operating ‘off the truck’, (and are heavily dependent) on resupply,” said Maj. Gen. Popov. “This involves massive logistics — lengthy and time-consuming processes. And it’s far from easy to sustain that across an ocean from the American continent.”
The existing stockpiles in warehouses and arsenals of air and naval US bases across the region, including Israel, contain a limited number of shells, bombs and drones, according to the military pundit.
“Without regular resupply from the US mainland — from the main weapons storage bases — their current stockpile would last roughly two weeks, no more than that.”
Rotating troops could turn into another major headache for the Americans, he felt.
Next comes the logistics of maintenance and rear-line support for supplying weapons to the region — both extremely costly processes.
“I think the advantage will clearly be on Iran’s side,” Popov said. “The calculations might suggest the Americans are in a far worse position than Iran. It’s also worth noting that the Israelis sparked this conflict — and their arsenal is similarly limited and unlikely to last long.”
Iran has learned the 12-day war lessons well, Mikael Valtersson, former Swedish Armed Forces and air defence officer, told Sputnik.
“The most important lesson from the 12-day war is that survivability is very important,” Valtersson said.
“You must have both a command structure and weapons capability that can survive intense enemy bombardment.”
The expert argued that Iran has demonstrated such resilience: Its leadership and armed forces remain operational and capable of launching large-scale retaliation.
Dismantling of extensive Mossad networks last year and the removal of opposition leaders earlier this year have further consolidated Iran’s internal stability.
It also seems that Iran has managed to turn the attempted American-Israeli blitzkrieg into what could become a prolonged war of attrition, he argued.
The expert also pointed out that Iran has rolled out a “mosaic defence”—decentralized, cell-based military units capable of launching covert drone and missile strikes from across its vast territory, designed as a counter to US-Israeli decapitation strategies.
It has also leaned heavily on massed drone warfare — swarms and coordinated drone and missile strikes designed to overwhelm enemy air defenses, while steadily depleting the missile stockpiles of the US and its allies.
Iran has managed to inflict damage on US bases in the Gulf due to several factors, according to the expert. Proximity to Iran means minimal warning and razor-thin response times.
The expert also felt poor coordination between US forces and local partners weakens base defenses. He also pointed out that key US air defence assets are tied down protecting Israel while Iran’s early destruction of the US AN/FPS-132 long-range radar curtailed the American ability to detect incoming missile launches.
“In general, Iran aims to exhaust the enemy air defence inventory, keep a strike capability when this happens, increase the economic cost for the US and, of course, survive the onslaught and force (the US) to abandon the war before the political and economic repercussions become too hard to handle,” Valtersson said.
