Introduction
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a defence deal on 17 September 2025. On paper, it looks like a pact between two traditional allies. It is a bargain of money and manpower, in reality.
Saudi Arabia is ready to pay. Pakistan is ready to provide soldiers. For India and the wider subcontinent, this agreement carries deep consequences.
The Defence Deal
The pact was signed at a time when Pakistan’s economy is under severe stress. The country is burdened with rising debt and no clear way out. For Riyadh, the deal secures something it has relied on for decades, Pakistani boots on the ground.
Reports suggest that Pakistani forces will provide training, protection, and manpower for Saudi Arabia’s defence requirements. In return, Saudi Arabia will release funds that Pakistan urgently needs. It is not just a military deal. It is an economic lifeline.
Debt and Dependence
Pakistan today owes more than US$130 billion in external debt. The State Bank of Pakistan confirmed the figure at the end of 2023.
Of this, China holds about US$28.8 billion, making it the single largest bilateral creditor with 22% of total liabilities. Saudi Arabia is the second largest, holding roughly US$9.1 billion or 7% of Pakistan’s debt.
The IMF, the Paris Club, and multilateral institutions add their own layers of pressure. Pakistan faces US$23 billion in debt servicing this fiscal year alone. Without rollovers and emergency assistance, default is a constant risk.
Recently, China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE rolled over US$12 billion of debt to buy Pakistan time. Saudi Arabia has already extended US$5 billion in loans and continues to provide oil on deferred payment.
In such circumstances, Pakistan had little room to bargain. The deal with Riyadh is more about survival than strategy.
Saudi Arabia’s Calculations
Why does Saudi Arabia want Pakistani troops?
History provides the answer. Since the 1960s, Pakistani soldiers have served in Saudi Arabia. They guarded borders, trained local forces, and even protected the royal family. During the Iran – Iraq war, thousands of Pakistani troops were stationed in the Kingdom.
But there is a risk this time. Pakistani men have shown utter disregard for local laws in almost every part of the world. Whether the Pakistan Army can maintain the standards expected of a soldier in Saudi Arabia is yet to be seen.
For Riyadh, however, the manpower question remains urgent. With Iran’s growing influence and the shifting security environment of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia wants troops it believes it can deploy quickly.
Pakistan’s Bargain: Soldiers as Currency
For Islamabad, soldiers have become currency. The Army remains Pakistan’s strongest institution. It consumes the largest share of the national budget. In exchange for Saudi cash, Pakistan is ready to “lease” its human capital.
This arrangement is not new. But the current scale is unprecedented because the economic crisis is unprecedented. Pakistan is effectively mortgaging its Army to service debt.
This raises hard questions. How sustainable is a model where a sovereign nation trades soldiers for survival? How long before such external commitments compromise Pakistan’s internal security?
Implications for India
For India, the deal must be read with caution.
First, Pakistan gains a financial cushion. Saudi money gives Islamabad temporary breathing space. That means the Pakistani state and Army can continue funding activities that target India, particularly in Kashmir.
Second, the prestige of Pakistani troops serving in Saudi Arabia could strengthen Rawalpindi’s hand domestically. The Army will showcase the deal as proof of its international relevance, further tightening its grip on Pakistan’s politics.
Third, India must factor in the potential for indirect Saudi influence on regional conflicts. If Riyadh underwrites Pakistan’s economy, Islamabad may feel emboldened to escalate cross-border activities while relying on Saudi protection from diplomatic fallout.
Finally, India cannot ignore the wider Gulf context. Millions of Indian workers live in Saudi Arabia. India is one of Riyadh’s largest trading partners. While the Kingdom needs India’s markets, it also needs Pakistan’s manpower. Balancing this equation will test New Delhi’s diplomacy.
Regional Fallout
The deal also impacts other regional players.
Iran will watch with suspicion. Pakistan providing troops to Saudi Arabia inevitably tilts the balance in the Gulf. Tehran may deepen its own ties with militant proxies in the region, further destabilising West Asia.
China quietly approves. With nearly US$29 billion invested in Pakistan, Beijing wants stability at any cost. Saudi funds keep Pakistan solvent, which in turn secures Chinese interests in CPEC and Gwadar.
The United States sees mixed signals. On the one hand, Washington wants stability in Pakistan. On the other, closer Saudi – Pakistani military ties complicate U.S. efforts to counter Iran and manage Gulf security.
For smaller Gulf states like the UAE and Qatar, this pact could spark an arms-length competition. They too may consider buying influence in Pakistan through similar deals.
India’s Strategic Outlook
India must prepare for three scenarios.
Scenario One: Status Quo Plus
Pakistan uses Saudi funds to stabilise its economy but avoids major escalations. In this case, India gains time but must remain vigilant along the Line of Control.
Scenario Two: Escalation Under Cover
Flush with Saudi support, Pakistan could attempt renewed terrorist activity in Kashmir, believing that diplomatic pressure will be muted. India must be ready to respond with clarity and strength, much like in Operation Sindoor.
Scenario Three: Regional Entanglement
If Saudi – Iran rivalry sharpens, Pakistani troops in the Kingdom may get drawn into Gulf conflicts. That would weaken Pakistan internally but could create chaos in the wider neighbourhood. India would need to recalibrate both its Gulf diplomacy and its Western naval deployments.
Conclusion
The Saudi – Pakistan defence deal is more than a contract. It reflects desperation and dependence. Saudi Arabia needs manpower. Pakistan needs money. Both sides gain in the short term.
But the long-term risks are serious. For Pakistan, trading soldiers for survival reduces sovereignty to a transaction. For Saudi Arabia, buying loyalty may work temporarily, but it cannot replace internal reforms or indigenous defence capacity.
For India, the lesson is clear. Watch closely. Prepare quietly. Respond firmly. The balance of power in South Asia and the Gulf is shifting once again.
The deal may buy Pakistan another year. It will not buy stability.
