The conflict in Manipur has escalated from a localized ethnic struggle to a crisis that poses a grave threat to India’s national integrity. With ethnic violence tearing apart communities, the ongoing unrest is no longer just a regional issue but a festering wound that, if left untreated, could spiral into a much larger disaster. Inaction or half-measures at this juncture could lead to irrevocable damage to India’s northeastern frontier, akin to an amputation of national unity.
The Manipur conflict revolves around a series of ethnic tensions, primarily between the Meitei and Kuki communities. The violence, which has claimed hundreds of lives and displaced tens of thousands, stems from a combination of historical grievances, territorial disputes, and fears of marginalization. While the Meitei community, which constitutes a majority, seeks Scheduled Tribe status to access benefits, the Kukis—largely concentrated in the hilly areas—view this demand as a threat to their existence.
The ethnic unrest has been exacerbated by decades of neglect, political failures, and the rise of insurgent groups that further complicate the conflict. While the government has attempted peace talks with various factions, the lack of a comprehensive resolution has only deepened the divide between these communities, pushing Manipur toward a state of protracted instability.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, while making strides in various sectors in the Northeast region, has remained largely ineffective in curbing the escalating violence in Manipur. This inaction has been met with criticism from across the political spectrum, with many accusing the central government of ignoring a region that is already on the brink of collapse. The central government’s failure to address the underlying causes of the violence—whether through dialogue, mediation, or decisive action—has given the conflict room to grow and fester.
The longer the crisis in Manipur is allowed to persist, the harder it will be to restore peace. The fragile ceasefires and temporary measures to curb violence will prove insufficient without addressing the ethnic and political grievances at the root of the conflict. Meanwhile, the emergence of new insurgent groups, such as Jamaatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya, further destabilizes the region, drawing in transnational actors that complicate the local struggle.
Leaving the Manipur conflict to fester could have catastrophic consequences, not just for the state but for India as a whole. The northeast is already a volatile region, marked by insurgencies, ethnic tensions, and the porous international borders that make it susceptible to external influences. If the conflict escalates further, it risks drawing in neighboring countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh, both of which share significant ties with the region’s insurgent groups.
The recent coup in Bangladesh has the potential to exacerbate tensions in India’s northeastern states, particularly in Manipur. The shared geography and complex historical ties between the northeastern states and Bangladesh provide fertile ground for insurgent groups to exploit these tensions for their own agendas. Religious militant groups such as Jamaatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya, with its Islamic fundamentalist ideology, and Christian militant factions like the Kuki National Front (KNF) are likely to seize on this period of instability to further their interests.
Bangladesh’s internal upheaval creates conditions that insurgent groups can capitalize on, whether through enhanced recruitment, cross-border smuggling of arms, or radicalization of vulnerable populations. Jamaatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya, with its foothold in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, has already established connections with local insurgencies, including the Kuki National Front. This group’s radical Islamic agenda aligns with broader efforts to destabilize India’s northeast by fostering religious and ethnic strife.
The coup in Bangladesh, by creating instability along India’s eastern frontier, could provide these groups with new opportunities to coordinate activities, pool resources, and plan joint operations. For Manipur, this could mean an escalation of violence, as both insurgent factions and external actors exploit the turmoil. The porous borders and inadequate policing of these regions make it easier for weapons, insurgents, and radical ideologies to flow into Manipur, thereby fueling the ongoing ethnic strife.
Moreover, the unchecked violence could spread to other northeastern states, igniting further ethnic tensions and secessionist movements. For a nation that prides itself on its diversity and unity, such fragmentation would represent a severe blow, a metaphorical amputation of its northeast. Manipur, if not stabilized soon, could become a point of no return, where peace can only be achieved at the cost of tremendous human and territorial loss.
India’s northeast has long been a region prone to conflict, and the events in Bangladesh only heighten the risk of a regional crisis. Myanmar, already grappling with its own civil unrest, shares a porous border with Manipur, where insurgents frequently cross back and forth. Now, with Bangladesh’s political situation adding to the instability, India finds itself surrounded by fragile states with significant ties to the insurgencies plaguing its northeastern region.
This triangulation of instability—Myanmar’s civil strife, Bangladesh’s coup, and Manipur’s ethnic violence—could create a perfect storm in which Manipur becomes the battleground for both domestic and international militant agendas. If left unchecked, the region could descend into chaos, dragging neighboring states into the conflict and transforming it into a far-reaching security crisis.
Prime Minister Modi must rise to the occasion and take decisive action to address the crisis in Manipur. His government has the tools to bring about meaningful change, but only if it prioritizes the situation. First, a comprehensive peace process involving all stakeholders—ethnic communities, insurgent groups, and regional leaders—must be initiated. Dialogue, however difficult, is the only way to build trust between the deeply divided communities.
Second, the central government must increase its security presence in the region, not merely to quell violence but to restore law and order. This should be done in conjunction with local leaders to avoid accusations of military overreach or ethnic favoritism. Lastly, the Modi government must demonstrate the political will to implement long-term solutions. This includes revisiting the issues surrounding Scheduled Tribe status, and ensuring that all ethnic groups in Manipur feel represented within the broader Indian framework.
The Manipur conflict has become a symbol of India’s struggle to maintain unity amidst its immense diversity. Prime Minister Modi must act decisively, not just for the sake of Manipur but for the entire nation. As the conflict festers, the risk of losing not just a state but the trust of a whole region grows more imminent. The Indian government cannot afford to treat the Manipur conflict as a localized issue any longer. The stakes have risen, and decisive action is needed to prevent this conflict from spilling over into a broader regional crisis.
Modi’s government must work toward a political solution that addresses the grievances of Manipur’s ethnic communities. As long as the Meitei-Kuki divide remains unresolved, insurgent groups will continue to exploit it. A strong, inclusive peace process, coupled with economic development and political representation for marginalized communities, is the only way to undercut the influence of insurgent groups in the long term.
India cannot afford to amputate any part of its territory—geographically, culturally, or emotionally. The time for decisive action is now. Only through immediate, bold steps can the government hope to heal the wound and prevent it from turning into a terminal condition. If Modi’s leadership is to leave a lasting legacy, it must be one of healing and reconciliation, not of neglect.
