One of the Russian groups belonging to a Russian veteran posted that men of the Syrian rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are currently tasked with securing the outer perimeter of the Russian embassy in Damascus. Their presence is visible, and they are actively preventing other militant factions from approaching the embassy. A similar security setup is in place at Russian bases in Latakia.
Ongoing negotiations are taking place between HTS leadership and Russian representatives concerning the future of Russia’s military presence in Syria. No conclusive agreement has been reached yet, and the discussions are still part of an ongoing negotiation process. Concurrently, Russian military forces in Syria are steadily consolidating in Latakia, with convoys of military equipment observed traversing different provinces in Syria.
This is probably a clear indication that Russians are pulling back from Syria, afterall Russian forces have been spread thin. With Ruso-Ukraine war intensifying, Russia is concentrating its efforts there. This probably is an indication that Putin may come to the peacetalk table soon. Albeit, before that happens Russia will secure its position in Eastern Europe.
Satellite Images:
On social media satellite images have emerged which reveal surge in operational activity at Khmeimim Air Base, highlighted by the arrival of several Russian transport aircraft. This includes two An-124 heavy cargo planes, one Il-76 strategic airlifter, as well as smaller aircraft such as three An-32s and one An-72. The claim is –since the imagery shows these aircraft positioned with their cargo bays open, ergo its highly likely that Russians are in preparation for the loading of heavy military equipment.
Khmeimim Air Base is a strategically significant airbase currently operated by the Russian Federation, situated southeast of Latakia, within the Hmeimim district of Latakia Governorate, Syria.
Ostensibly, on 7 December 2024, reports indicated that Russia was in the process of evacuating its military assets from Khmeimim Air Base. Russian forces were seen relocating S-400 and Tor air defense systems to their naval base in Tartus. The following day, on 8 December, Russian control of the airbase was under substantial threat due to advancing rebel forces. However, subsequent updates revealed that the opposition forces had no intentions of breaching the military bases, with Russia opting to engage with the new Syrian leadership.
Two Interesting Facts About Khmeimim Air Base:
- Khmeimim Air Base serves as a key hub for Russian military operations in the Middle East, providing a launch point for airstrikes in Syria and supporting Russian naval operations in the Mediterranean.
- The base is equipped with advanced Russian defense systems, including the S-400 missile defense system, which enhances Russia’s ability to defend both its assets and Syrian airspace from potential threats.
Russian Naval Assets:
A Veteran of the Belgian Navy claims that Russians are evacuating from Syria after the negotiation deals with HTS failed. He confirms that the Russian Mediterranean Task Force maintained a static operational posture near Syrian territorial waters off the coast of Tartus over the past week. This stance was consistent with prior intelligence suggesting that Russia has been engaged in negotiations with Syrian opposition factions regarding the retention of its military presence in the Latakia province. However, developments later in the week indicate a potential breakdown in these negotiations, with early indicators pointing towards the initiation of a Russian military drawdown from Syria.
Ostensibly the cargo vessels Sparta and Ursa Major, originally scheduled to proceed to Port Said and Vladivostok according to AIS data, are now expected to alter their routes to Tartus to assist in the extraction of Russian assets. Of Course, the satellite images posted above confirm the same.
There are other Russian naval assets which will reduce the burden of Sparta and Ursa major. The Ropucha-class landing ship Aleksandr Shabalin, which departed the Baltic Sea on December 10, may also reach Tartus. Marine Forum claims that In view of its history, the landing ship was at least temporarily assigned to the Russian Mediterranean fleet in November 2014, the “Aleksandr Shabalin” could return there.. Ropucha-class vessels have been employed for transporting heavy military equipment to and from Syria, reinforcing the possibility of its involvement in this withdrawal operation.
The enthusiastic Russian supporters on social media have also for the first time declared that Russia might be pulling out its assets from Syria
On December 6, Russia asked its citizens to leave Syria. The Russian embassy in Damascus advised citizens to “leave the country by commercial flights through active airports”.
This brings us to an end of an epoch! Syria war finally coming to an end. Syria will be on the path of recovery– lets hope. Meanwhile in Ukraine, the war will intensify before one final blow and that will bring all the parties to the peace talk table. The billion-dollar question now is— once America manages to silence the guns in Ukraine, will it concentrate on China? Or will Africa keep American allies occupied?
By Levina
Author is an analyst of strategic affairs and defence. She has expertise in content creation on many subjects.
