Goa is home to two Lok Sabha seats. One from North Goa and one from South Goa.
North Goa has been won by one of BJP Goa’s most senior political leaders Shripad Naik for the last four terms giving the BJP an edge in the runup to Lok Sabha 2024. Naik is currently a Minister of State for Ports, Shipping, and Waterways at the Centre. Grapevine in Goa and at the Centre is that BJP will go into the fight for North Goa with Shripad Naik, though there are some quarters within the political power circle locally who want a replacement for Shripad Naik in North Goa, citing his age as being one of the concerns and a need to push a young leader from BJP Goa to Centre-based politics.
South Goa, however, remains a conundrum for the BJP and Congress alike. However, the route that will be taken by Congress is predictable and expected in their line of thought. BJP on the other hand won the South Goa seat in 2014 when the Late Manohar Parrikar who was then the Chief Minister of Goa led the BJP and guided the BJP Lok Sabha candidate Narendra Sawaikar to victory. In 2019, both Parrikar and Sawaikar could not repeat the magic of 2014, even though BJP-led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the hearts of people across India. The people of South Goa thought differently from the rest of India, they decided to put their faith in the Congress and its candidate Francisco Sardinha.
South Goa in 2024 for the BJP is not going to be an easy walk for the BJP, even though some of the BJP leaders in Goa and at the Centre believe that Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial face and that BJP’s people-centric schemes are enough to encourage the people of South Goa to vote for the BJP Lok Sabha candidate.
While it might be true to some extent and in some pockets of South Goa that Prime Minister Modi is a face that would encourage a South Goa voter to vote for the BJP, it is not enough a face to counter the onslaught of the hardcore anti-BJP, anti-RSS and anti-Modi Christian lobby that South Goa also houses. More so, sometimes the most obvious truth is overlooked by the leaders in Goa and at the Centre that the Christians in Goa tend to influence their liberal Hindu voter friends who believe in the Indianised version of the definition of secularism popularised by the Congress and who see the BJP, RSS and Narendra Modi as communal and not working in the interest of their idea of a secular India.
The split of votes is not going to be a phenomenon that would work in the favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha 2024 in Goa because the fight is largely going to be between the Congress candidate and the BJP candidate. Other political parties would undoubtedly put their candidates to stay relevant in Goan politics but the people of South Goa are going to elect someone from the Congress or the BJP to send to the parliament in Lok Sabha.
The folly of the BJP would be to think that now that it has a considerable presence in South Goa after eight MLAs of the Congress joined the BJP, some of whom are from constituencies in South Goa it has a better chance to win. In 2019, 10 Congress MLAs joined the BJP but they did not perform well in the Goa State Assembly Election 2022. Another confidence yardstick is the assumption that now that it has the support of the MGP which it did not have in 2019 and therefore Lok Sabha 2024 would be a walk in the park for the party since its loss in 2019 was about 9000-odd votes. It is not going to be a journey without thorns for the BJP because right now the Catholic Church in Goa which holds sway over the Christian voter base does not have confidence in the BJP to maintain the social fabric, so intrinsic to Goa.
The loss of the BJP in Karnataka where the Christians, Muslims and some sections of the Hindu community came together to play a decisive path in keeping the BJP out of the government. The ongoing Manipur conflict between the Meitei and Kuki communities was portrayed by certain sections on the social media and mainstream media as Hindu and Christian conflagration with state and centre allowing the Christians to be victimised. Though the propagated story on Manipur is not the truth on the ground, the silence of Prime Minister Modi over the conflict in Manipur for 80 days allowed for the negativity to spread among the Christian community in most parts of India, mostly in Goa and Goans living in other parts of India and other parts of the world. Manipur will have an impact in the 2024 elections especially in the Christian community. More so, the recent conflagration incidents between Hindus, Christians and Muslims in Goa triggered by people intending to cause communal strife in the state is causing some discomfort in most communities, especially the minority communities.
Several other moot points propagated by the opposition have been aimed at influencing the minority community to dislike the BJP and believe that Narendra Modi is an incarnation of Adolf Hitler. Shockingly, the minorities and some liberal Hindus find it easier to believe that Narendra Modi is like Hitler who history has shown was a man who sent six million Jews to their graves in the most horrific way, when instead Prime Minister Modi has been working with inclusivity to ensure minorities are not deprived of their fundamental rights and equal opportunities in India.
Over the South Goa candidate for Lok Sabha, BJP has a conundrum, a large section of the local leadership believes that the party should follow a tried and tested method which had seen success in 2014, a Hindu face with a 15 and 20 per cent decent Christian voter base because a large section of the Hindu voters will vote for the BJP in a highly polarised election because it is assumed that Hindus will vote for BJP. Interestingly, South Goa has more Hindu voters than Christian voters, 53.34 per cent Hindu voters, 36.21 per cent Christian voters and 9.93 per cent Muslim voters but the Hindu consolidation did not take place as expected in 2019 and neither did the Christians repose enough faith in BJP for Sawaikar to win the election. In 2014, it was Parrikar’s outreach with the Catholic Church leaders and Christian community along with Sawaikar’s connection with all communities that worked as a winning formula but it was not successful in 2019 because there was a dent in the relationship between BJP and the Catholic Church.
There is another school of thought being mooted at the Centre in some circles of decision-making on whether BJP should in South Goa put a Christian face with a balanced Hindu voter base and a considerable Christian voter base. More importantly, someone who can be groomed to be a Christian face of the BJP at the Centre. And with Goa often being seen politically in India and internationally as a Christian-dominated state even though it is not, it would seem as a prudent decision to have a pro-BJP Christian face emerge from preferably Goa. Kerala and North-East would be other states the BJP would be looking towards grooming young Christian leaders in the BJP. Some believe that it could be a tactful decision if the BJP could groom one of its existing Christian MLAs from South Goa or a Christian leader to become a national face of India from Goa from the Christian community.
Interestingly, there is yet another school of thought in a small section of the local leadership, that the BJP could consider someone from the SC/ST community from South Goa. In fact, prominent leaders from the SC/ST communities have been jostling for this option with one such leader making the rounds of the central leadership in New Delhi and has been confiding to his well-wishers that he could be the dark horse of the BJP for the LS 2024. And there is no doubt that out of the potential six names doing the rounds, he tops the list. However, what would make it interesting is if the BJP can find a Christian from the SC/ST community. Or will the BJP go with an old Hindu face or a new Hindu face; Or will the BJP have the confidence in putting a Christian face in South Goa when it appears that Congress most certainly will go in with a Christian face for LS 2024 or could they decide to put a Hindu face with a strong Christian following to checkmate BJP? Only time will tell.
