Yahya Sinwar, a key figure in Hamas and a product of the Khan Yunis refugee camp, lived a life dedicated to a singular cause: the pursuit of jihad in line with Hamas’s founding principles. For Sinwar, there was no deviation from the belief that “the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf (endowment) consecrated for future Muslim generations until Judgment Day,” as articulated in Article 11 of Hamas’s covenant. This ideology left no room for compromise, and Sinwar stayed true to this path until his death.
The final phase of Sinwar’s career, from the events of October 7, 2023, to the collapse of the building that marked his demise in Rafah, can be understood as the result of two significant miscalculations. One was made by Israel regarding Sinwar’s intentions, while the other was Sinwar’s own misjudgment about the resilience and determination of his adversary.
Israel’s Misunderstanding of Sinwar
Israel fundamentally misjudged Sinwar’s commitment to Hamas’s ideology. Unlike leaders in the Fatah movement, who had shown a willingness to engage in negotiations and political processes, Sinwar was seen as someone who could potentially be co-opted or influenced by power and material incentives. This flawed assumption formed the basis for the controversial decision in 2011 to release Sinwar, along with 1,026 other convicted terrorists, in exchange for a single Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
The Shalit deal allowed Sinwar to return to Gaza and continue down the path that eventually led to the horrors of October 7. However, this fact is often overlooked in Israeli discussions, as both the then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main political opponents supported the deal at the time, thus precluding any meaningful political debate on the consequences.
The belief that Sinwar could evolve into a tacit partner persisted throughout the following decade. Israel’s acceptance of Qatari cash infusions into Gaza and its restrained military responses to repeated provocations were consequences of this misconception. Ultimately, this approach culminated in the inadequate deployment of just under 700 soldiers to guard the Gaza border on October 7, 2023.
Sinwar’s ability to recognize and exploit this cardinal error in Israeli policy was a brilliant act of strategic deception on his part. It secured his place as a hero among those dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the establishment of an Islamic state in its stead. For his supporters and sympathizers in the West, Sinwar emerged as a figure to be celebrated for his commitment to this cause.
Sinwar’s Misjudgment of Israeli Resolve
Despite Sinwar’s cunning exploitation of Israeli misjudgments, he failed to understand the fundamental nature of his enemy. As a faithful adherent to the Iran-led ‘Mehwar al Muqawama’ (Axis of Resistance), Sinwar operated under the assumption that Israeli society was inherently fragile, lacking the deep commitment necessary for its own survival. This perception stemmed from several factors: the relatively recent immigrant roots of most Israeli Jews, a belief that these immigrants had not yet fully established a deep-rooted connection to the land or an interpretation rooted in Islamic history that painted Jews as a people focused on materialism rather than military prowess.
These beliefs shaped Sinwar’s strategy, leading him to think that Israel could be gradually worn down through a sustained asymmetrical conflict. He appeared to be confident that Israel would not dare to launch a full-scale ground invasion to dismantle his control over Gaza. Even if such an invasion occurred, he anticipated that Israel would be unable to sustain its operations in the face of significant casualties or that the possession of hostages would deter Israel from pursuing its military objectives.
However, the events following October 7 have shattered these assumptions. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advanced into Gaza with determination, even as they faced substantial losses in the early stages of their campaign. Israeli society, while grieving and filled with anger, remained resolutely supportive of the war effort. The death of Sinwar and the subsequent dismantling of Hamas’s power in Gaza have made clear the flaws in the conception held by Sinwar and his allies.
The Consequences of Miscalculation
The trajectory of Yahya Sinwar’s career, marked by unwavering commitment to the ideology of Hamas and strategic deception, ultimately failed. While Sinwar managed to identify and exploit Israel’s miscalculations for a time, his inability to correctly assess the resilience and resolve of Israeli society led to his demise. The aftermath of October 7 has revealed not a society on the brink of collapse, but rather one unified in grief and anger, committed to ensuring the security of its future.
Sinwar’s story serves as a stark reminder of the perils of ideological rigidity and the dangers of underestimating an opponent’s resolve. His career trajectory, ending amidst the ruins in Rafah, exemplifies the limits of strategic deception when confronted with a determined adversary. Ultimately, his miscalculations contributed not only to his own death but to the unraveling of the very movement he sought to elevate.
