Key Takeaways
- The Morgan Stanley report expects a decline of about 10% in the US currency by the end of 2026.
- The dollar index fell by about 11% from January to June, impacting the US’s major trading partners.
- The US currency decline will impact consumers, investors, businesses, and ultimately the overall economy.
New Delhi: The value of the US dollar against other currencies dropped about 11 per cent in the first half of this year as per the Morgan Stanley report.
The report noted that the US dollar ended the first half of 2025 with its biggest loss since 1973. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against the basket of currencies of the US’s major trading partners, fell about 11 per cent from January through the end of June.
David Adams, head of GIO FX strategy, Morgan Stanley, said, “We’re likely at the intermission rather than the finale. The second act for the dollar’s weakening should come over the next 12 months, as US interest rates and growth converge with those of the rest of the world.”
The Morgan Stanley report also expects a decline of about 10 per cent in losses by the end of the year. This rigorous decline will impact consumers, investors, businesses, and ultimately the overall economy.
“Yet recent evidence of labor market weakness combined with policy uncertainty in the US such as tariff negotiations and the recent debate about an early change in Fed’s leadership, remains a source of downward pressure on the dollar,” said James Lord, chief global FX strategist, Morgan Stanley.
Now, US assets could be less compelling for foreign investors, and the rise in import prices triggers inflation in the economy, as per the report.
