Since March 2020, Syria’s conflict lines have remained largely static, maintained by a series of ceasefires and security agreements brokered by Russia, Turkey, Iran, and America. However, this fragile stability was disrupted recently by a coordinated offensive launched by a coalition of armed opposition groups targeting Aleppo’s western countryside in November.
Ostensibly the preparation was going on since last 2 years. Earlier in April we had reported that there’s a very high probability that Syrian war will intensify as Iranian weapon supply to the region had increased by leaps and bounds. A month prior to that Turkish Intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, was in America on his first solo trip.
Dubbed Operation Deter Aggression, the campaign commenced in late November with the stated objective of expanding opposition control over the western outskirts of Aleppo. This area had long been a base for Syrian regime forces.
On November 27, opposition forces, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise assault, capturing significant portions of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. This operation marks the most significant territorial gain by opposition forces in years and signals a potential shift in the dynamics of the Syrian conflict.
Aleppo, a city of approximately two million people, has been under Syrian government control since 2016. The regime’s hold was secured through a devastating campaign supported by Russia, Iran, and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Russian airpower played a critical role in helping Bashar al-Assad’s forces reclaim the city following years of intense urban warfare.
HTS– the most powerful rebel faction
The rebel forces are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), alongside the Syrian National Army, an umbrella organization comprising Turkish-backed Syrian militias. Ostensibly, HTS was founded by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who previously participated in the Iraqi insurgency against the United States as a member of the group that later evolved into the Islamic State. Time doth fly! And change is inevitable, they say.
HTS, often referred to as Tahrir al-Sham, is the most dominant rebel faction in Syria. Use of the word powerful will also not be wrong here. It is a Sunni Islamist political and paramilitary organization active in the Syrian civil war. HTS was established on January 28, 2017, through the merger of several smaller factions. HTS has since been pursuing a “Syrianization” programme; and its is focused on establishing a stable civilian administration. Believe it or not!!!
After the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Assad’s forces and the rebels, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) concentrated on strengthening its ranks by enlisting a new cohort of “foreign legionnaires.” These recruits originate from regions such as Chechnya, Albania, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and other Salafi-aligned factions. Together, they have been organized into three specialized units that have been instrumental in achieving key victories against the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo and Hama.
HTS’s foreign legion units:
- Kataib Shaheen (Falcon Brigade):
A specialized unit skilled in operating FPV and reconnaissance drones. This brigade played a critical role in thwarting Assad’s counteroffensive in Hama. They were apparently trained by a Chechen who had been in Ukraine.
Screen grab from a drone-cam from Syria which shows Syrian Forces being targeted.
- Asaib al-Hamra (The Red Bands):
Comprising primarily Uzbek and Chechen Wahabi fighters, this unit functions as shock troops during daytime search-and-destroy (S&D) operations.
Pic credit: Levent Kemal/X
- Saraya al-Harari (Thermal Brigade):
Predominantly made up of Turkish Salafi fighters, this unit focuses on night-time operations to disrupt Assad’s supply lines and conduct reconnaissance. It consists of several hundred fighters, each armed with assault rifles, sniper rifles, and rocket-propelled grenades, all outfitted with advanced night-vision scopes for enhanced effectiveness. Sources claim, not even Assad’s men were as well equipped as Saraya Al-Harari men.
Iran warned:
Iran reportedly alerted Assad two months earlier, warning that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was planning a significant offensive. However, Assad dismissed the warning, relying instead on assurances from the Turkish Foreign Minister that no such action would occur—a claim that later proved inaccurate.
When HTS forces advanced into Western Aleppo, Iran anticipated Assad would request military assistance and was fully prepared to deploy troops and resources. Surprisingly, no such request was made by Assad. This is the reason some pro-Assad experts believe he was asked to step down by Russia itself. In last few months Assad had made peace with GCC countries. According to Donald Trump Assad is presently in Russia.
Russian Dilemma:
Russia’s primary concern lies with Central Asian militants or rebels in Syria, who may expand their activities beyond Syrian borders. In 2024, groups like ISKP (Islamic State Khorasan Province) have repeatedly put Russian forces on tenterhooks; the Crocus Mall is an example. This March 2024 terror attack resulted in 145 fatalities and over 500 injuries, with most perpetrators identified as Central Asians, primarily Tajiks and Uzbeks. These militants harbor strong anti-Russian sentiments, despite the irony that many Central Asians still migrate to Russia for employment.
Adding to Russia’s woes is the fact that there are Chechen fighters within Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) mercenary ranks. Some of these individuals gained experience operating drones while fighting in Ukraine and subsequently transferred this expertise to their Central Asian “brothers”, leading to the formation of HTS’s Falcon Brigade.
Russian analysts suspect that Western powers influencing HTS may seek to weaponize these militants against Russia. Possible scenarios include escalating conflicts in Ukraine, opening a new front in Central Asia or the Caucasus, or enabling Uzbek and Tajik jihadists to infiltrate Russia as workers, potentially establishing sleeper cells for future attacks.
What happened in Syria was neither a surprise nor a shock for those who were keeping a tab on Syrian rebels. America would love to bring Russia to the peace-table pronto, but before that happens Russia will intensify its war in Ukraine and reinforce its positions, whilst American allies will leave no stone unturned to spread Russian resources thin.
By Levina
Author is an analyst of strategic affairs and defence. She has expertise in content creation on many subjects.
