Iran is currently accelerating its advance toward a nuclear weapons capability. Tehran has been increasing its enrichment of uranium to 60% in recent months, apparently in response to recent setbacks it has experienced on other fronts. The time it would require to produce sufficient uranium to build a nuclear bomb is now a matter of weeks rather than months, according to estimates from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This alarming development has significant geopolitical implications and demands immediate action, particularly from Israel.
For years, Iran has pursued a nuclear program under the guise of civilian energy development. However, intelligence reports and expert analyses have consistently pointed to Iran’s ultimate ambition: the development of nuclear weapons. If Iran succeeds in its nuclear aspirations, it will pose an existential threat to Israel and destabilize the Middle East. The Iranian regime, known for its hostility toward Israel and its funding of terrorist organizations, cannot be allowed to possess such destructive capabilities.
A nuclear-armed Iran would embolden Tehran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. These groups have consistently engaged in aggression against Israel and other regional actors. If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, its ability to project power and influence would increase exponentially, making deterrence far more difficult. The Israeli doctrine of preemptive defense, as seen in the 1981 attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor and the 2007 destruction of Syria’s nuclear facility, must be applied decisively to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Iran’s ability to deter an Israeli attack has declined significantly in the latter part of 2024. The destruction of 80% of Lebanese Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal by Israel during this period, along with the elimination of its top leadership and a large number of its fighters, has weakened a key component of Iran’s defensive and retaliatory strategy. For years, Hezbollah has acted as Iran’s strategic buffer, threatening massive retaliation in case of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. With Hezbollah significantly weakened, one of Israel’s primary strategic constraints has been reduced.
However, this advantage is perishable. Iran is already working to rearm Hezbollah, replenishing its missile stockpile and reinforcing its military infrastructure. Time is of the essence; if Israel does not act soon, it risks facing an even stronger Hezbollah backed by Iranian nuclear deterrence.
Israel’s large-scale retaliation against Iran on October 26, 2024, dealt a significant blow to Iran’s military capabilities. A large portion of Iran’s air defense systems was destroyed, including its Russian-made S-300 systems. This has temporarily left Iran vulnerable to aerial incursions. However, this too is a fleeting advantage. Iran’s strengthening ties with Russia could soon lead to the acquisition of the more advanced S-400 system, which would significantly enhance its defensive posture against any Israeli airstrike.
This underscores the urgency of the situation. Israel cannot afford to wait for Iran to rebuild its air defenses or for Hezbollah to regain its full strength. The window of opportunity is narrow and closing rapidly. If Israel does not act now, the strategic equation in the Middle East could shift irreversibly in Iran’s favor.
Israel has a range of military options at its disposal to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) possesses cutting-edge technology, including F-35 stealth fighters capable of penetrating heavily defended airspace. Additionally, cyber warfare capabilities could be employed to sabotage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, as seen in previous operations such as the Stuxnet attack.
While Israel must take the lead in neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat, the international community has a critical role to play. The United States and European nations must recognize that diplomacy alone has failed to curb Iran’s ambitions. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a flawed agreement that provided Iran with economic relief while failing to prevent its nuclear progress. The time for negotiations has passed; decisive action is needed.
Arab nations, particularly those in the Abraham Accords framework, should also be engaged in efforts to contain Iran. A nuclear-armed Iran poses a direct threat to Gulf states, many of whom have been targeted by Iranian-backed militias. A coordinated regional effort, backed by intelligence sharing and military cooperation, could enhance the effectiveness of an Israeli strike.
If Israel does not act, the consequences could be catastrophic. A nuclear Iran would trigger an arms race in the Middle East, with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt seeking their own nuclear capabilities. This would further destabilize an already volatile region. Moreover, Iran’s ability to shield its terrorist proxies under a nuclear umbrella would lead to increased aggression against Israel and its allies.
Additionally, a nuclear-armed Iran would alter the global balance of power. Iran’s growing ties with Russia and China indicate that a nuclear Iran would not operate in isolation but as part of a broader anti-Western alliance. This would have significant implications for global security and stability.
Israel stands at a crossroads. The window of opportunity to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program is rapidly closing. With Hezbollah weakened and Iran’s air defenses temporarily compromised, the conditions are optimal for a decisive strike. However, hesitation could lead to an irreversible shift in the Middle East’s strategic landscape.
Israel has demonstrated in the past that it will not allow existential threats to materialize. From Osirak in 1981 to Syria in 2007, Israel has acted decisively to eliminate nuclear threats before they reached fruition. The situation with Iran is no different. The risks of inaction far outweigh the risks of action. The world cannot afford a nuclear Iran, and Israel must ensure that it never becomes a reality.
