The ongoing turmoil in Myanmar has cast a long shadow over the northeastern Indian state of Manipur. What appears to be a localised ethnic conflict between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities in Manipur is, in fact, deeply intertwined with the civil war raging across the border in Myanmar. The shared ethnic ties, porous borders, and geopolitical complexities make it impossible to view the unrest in Manipur in isolation. Instead, it is a glaring example of how regional instability can spill across national boundaries, igniting fires that threaten to engulf an entire region.
The military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, which ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government, plunged the country into chaos. Protests against the coup were met with brutal repression, pushing civilians to take up arms against the junta. This resistance evolved into a full-blown civil war, with ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and new insurgent groups like the People’s Defence Force (PDF) joining the fight against the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military.
Myanmar’s complex ethnic mosaic, with over 135 recognised groups, has always been a source of tension. Among them, the Chin people, closely related to the Kuki-Zomi tribes in Manipur and Mizoram, have been at the forefront of resistance against the junta. This ethnic solidarity has forged a direct link between the conflict in Myanmar and the unrest in Manipur, as communities on both sides of the border rally to support their kin.
The Kuki-Zomi people in Manipur share deep historical, cultural, and familial ties with the Chin people in Myanmar. As the Myanmar military intensified its crackdown, thousands of Chin refugees fled to India, particularly to Manipur and Mizoram. While this refugee influx is a humanitarian crisis, it has also become a flashpoint for conflict in Manipur.
The Meitei community, which forms the majority in Manipur, perceives the growing Kuki-Zomi population as a threat to their land, resources, and cultural identity. This has exacerbated tensions over issues like land ownership and political representation. The conflict has spiralled into violence, with clashes, arson, and displacement on an unprecedented scale.
For the Kukis in Manipur, their involvement in supporting their Chin kin across the border has drawn allegations of arms smuggling and militant activities. The porous India-Myanmar border has facilitated the flow of weapons and fighters, further fuelling the conflict. This connection to Myanmar’s civil war has made the violence in Manipur more intense and complex, with local grievances becoming entangled with international dynamics.
The 1,643-km-long border between India and Myanmar is largely unguarded, with dense forests and rugged terrain providing ideal cover for smuggling and insurgent activities. This porous border has historically been a route for arms, drugs, and militants, and the ongoing war in Myanmar has only exacerbated the problem.
Myanmar is a hub for illegal arms trade, with weapons often finding their way into northeastern India. In Manipur, insurgent groups have long relied on these supply lines, but the civil war in Myanmar has increased the availability of sophisticated weaponry. The result is a heavily armed conflict that is difficult to contain.
The border is also a key conduit for narcotics. Myanmar’s infamous Golden Triangle is a global center for heroin and methamphetamine production. The drugs smuggled into Manipur not only fuel addiction but also finance insurgent groups and criminal networks, further destabilising the region.
Since the Myanmar coup, tens of thousands of refugees, primarily from the Chin community, have crossed into India, seeking safety in Manipur and Mizoram. While Mizoram has largely welcomed the refugees, the situation in Manipur is more fraught. The state’s ethnic divisions have made the presence of Kuki-Chin refugees a contentious issue.
For the Kukis, the refugees are part of their extended community, deserving of shelter and support. For the Meiteis, however, the influx is seen as an encroachment that threatens their dominance in the state. This perception has further strained relations, with refugees often caught in the crossfire of Manipur’s ethnic violence.
The violence in Manipur, which erupted in May 2023, is rooted in long-standing grievances between the Meitei and Kuki-Zomi communities. However, the scale and intensity of the conflict have been magnified by the spillover effects of the Myanmar crisis. The influx of refugees, the flow of arms, and the ethnic solidarity with Myanmar’s Chin resistance have all played a role in turning Manipur into a powder keg.
The Indian government’s efforts to address the situation have largely been reactive. While security forces have been deployed to contain the violence, these measures have done little to address the underlying causes. The lack of a coherent strategy to manage the border, coupled with the complexities of regional politics, has allowed the crisis to fester.
The link between Myanmar’s civil war and the unrest in Manipur highlights the interconnectedness of regional conflicts. What happens in Myanmar does not stay within its borders; it reverberates across Southeast Asia, impacting neighbouring countries like India.
India’s northeastern states, including Manipur, are particularly vulnerable to such spillovers due to their geographic and cultural ties to Myanmar. This makes it imperative for India to view the Manipur crisis not just as a domestic issue but as part of a larger regional problem.
Moreover, the situation has global implications. The flow of narcotics and arms from Myanmar affects international markets, while the refugee crisis poses challenges for humanitarian organisations worldwide. The instability in the region also provides fertile ground for transnational crime and insurgency, threatening peace and security far beyond the borders of India and Myanmar.
The fire burning in Myanmar has crossed borders, igniting the ethnic tensions in Manipur and turning them into a full-blown crisis. The shared ethnic ties, porous borders, and illicit trade networks have created a dangerous nexus, linking the two conflicts in ways that are difficult to disentangle.
While the violence in Manipur is rooted in local grievances, it cannot be resolved without addressing the larger context of Myanmar’s civil war. This requires not only effective border management and security measures but also a deeper understanding of the cultural and historical ties that bind the people of the region.
As the flames of conflict continue to spread,
