Key Takeaways
- The IMF predicts a minor downward adjustment in global economy growth due to tariffs, but does not project a recession.
- Uncertainty surrounding trade policy is the main factor contributing to stagnation of global economic growth.
- The IMF forecasts a slight decline in global economic growth, but notes that the impact will be relatively small.
Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its upcoming World Economic Outlook report forecasts a slight decline in global economic growth due to US tariffs and counter-tariffs and does not project a recession, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday.
“We will know more when we can analyze all the data available. In three weeks, we will present our World Economic Outlook. We are not seeing a dramatic impact. If anything, there would be a small correction. Downward correction, yes, but relatively small. We don’t see a recession on the horizon.” Georgieva told Reuters.
Georgieva noted that uncertainty surrounding trade policy is the main factor contributing to the stagnation of global economic growth.
In January, the IMF said in its updated World Economic Outlook that the global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% both in 2025 and 2026, lagging behind the 2000-2019 average of 3.7%.
